A pre-poll survey by Times Now-CVoter and CNN-IBN has predicted an anti-incumbency factor which would propel the Left front to power in Kerala with a whopping 86 seats as compared to a mere 53 in the ruling United Democratic Front’s favour in the assembly elections scheduled for May 16.
The surveys cover a period of four weeks in March 2016 wherein a cross-section of voters from all assembly segments in the five poll-bound states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, West Bengal and Puducherry participated .
The LDF vote share of 43.6% in 2011 is predicted to increase by .2% only thereby, leaving its mass base of voters in the state more or less intact.
Going by the survey, it is the NDA and not the Left which is predicted to eat into the UDF share of votes. The NDA is all set to see an increase in its vote share from just 6.1% in 2011 to 10% in 2016, a jump of 3.9%.
But when translated into the number of seats which would actually be won by the BJP-BDJS-JSS combine, this would come to only one assembly seat which would in all probability be Nemom in Thiruvananthapuram from where the saffron party veteran O Rajagoapl is contesting.
The UDF is most likely to see a dip in its electoral fortunes with a decrease of 4.5% in its vote share of 45.8% in 2011 to 41.3% in 2016.
The survey also predicts incumbent CM Oommen Chandy’s losing prospects as a chief ministerial candidate in a post-election scenario.