As Tamil Nadu awaits the results of the assembly elections on May 19, Twitterati are busy dissecting the exit poll numbers presented on Monday evening. Three polls predict that the DMK will win the elections, while one suggests a possible hung assembly and the other shows AIADMK emerging victorious.
Meanwhile, TV anchors of channels which aired the exit polls showing a DMK victory themselves are expressing doubt over their surveys, hinting that the AIADMK might win after all.
Rajdeep Sardesai, Consulting Editor of the India Today Group tweeted doubting the exit poll:
I fear one of the axis my India exit poll figures may miss the mark. Now, don't ask me which state! #exitpoll
— Rajdeep Sardesai (@sardesairajdeep) May 16, 2016
Would never discount amma! Let's wait till 19th. https://t.co/datnMIxwbz
— Rajdeep Sardesai (@sardesairajdeep) May 17, 2016
CNN-News 18’s Bhupendra Chaubey also expressed doubts in the figures, tweeting that pollsters could have got it wrong in one of the poll bound states, hinting at TN in another tweets.
Interesting exit poll coverage. My own take , pollsters I think may well have got one state wrong. Let's see which one
— bhupendra chaubey (@bhupendrachaube) May 16, 2016
Assam, WB trends are clear. But what about Tamil Nadu. No one has a clue. Was it an issue less election? #PollOfPolls2016
— bhupendra chaubey (@bhupendrachaube) May 16, 2016
Political commentator Sumanth C Raman tweeted that the exit polls only added to the confusion, noting that without vote share, the analysis was limited.
I am just not able to call this one with any confidence. 2 exit polls hv not published vote share making it difficult to assess.
— Sumanth Raman (@sumanthraman) May 16, 2016
But it wasn’t just journalists and political commentators who were unsure of the numbers. Many have observed that the exit polls were underestimating third fronts like the PMK and the PWF, and that the vote share in favour of DMK could be too high. With all surveys viewing the battle as one between the DMK and the AIADMK, the arithmetic could be suspect, many feel.
If DMK+Congress gets 45+ Vote share then they should get 180-200 seats.
— Narayanan (@visaraj) May 16, 2016
Adding to the uncertainty was Thanthi TV. Their pre-poll opinions survey suggested it was too close to call the election, giving AIADMK 102 seats, the DMK alliance 79, and the PMK 1, leaving 52 seats too close to call.