Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Nara Chandrababu Naidu on Saturday, October 19, reignited the debate on population imbalance between north and south India, proposing incentives for families with more than two children. After forming the government in June, the TDP repealed the two-child policy for local body elections, which had previously disqualified individuals with more than two children from contesting in rural and urban local bodies. Naidu has now promised to introduce a law allowing only candidates with more than two children to contest these elections.
“We are considering incentivising families with more children to encourage couples to expand their families. We have already repealed the earlier law that barred individuals with more than two children from contesting local body elections, and we will introduce a new law allowing only those with more than two children to contest,” said Chief Minister Nara Chandrababu Naidu.
This is not the first time Naidu has advocated for population growth in the state. In August, he had made similar arguments, predicting that Andhra Pradesh could face disadvantages if the population continues to decline. His primary concern lies with delimitation, which will reallocate Lok Sabha seats based on the population recorded in the next census. The Union government is yet to conduct the census.
Based on the 2011 census, population growth is expected to be higher in northern states, meaning they will likely have more representatives in Parliament than the southern states, which could put the south at a disadvantage. Naidu's stance has found support from Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin, who, at an event in Chennai on October 21, said, "Today, as we face the possibility of fewer Lok Sabha constituencies, it raises the question: why should we limit ourselves to having fewer children? Why shouldn't we aim for 16 children?”
Watch this video by Anna Isaac on how delimitation is disadvantageous to the south.
There is also a fiscal aspect to this issue. The Finance Commission determines how tax revenues are shared among states, with a higher population leading to higher tax allocations from the Union government. For example, Uttar Pradesh recently received Rs 31,962 crore, the highest allocation, exceeding the combined total of Rs 28,152 crore given to the five southern states — Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh.
The Finance Commission uses a tax-sharing formula based on terms of reference set by the Union government. Up until the 13th Finance Commission (up to 2010), the formula was based on the 1971 census. The 14th Finance Commission, in effect from 2015, started using both the 1971 and 2011 census data. The 15th Finance Commission now exclusively uses the 2011 census, which benefits states with higher population growth like Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh, while states with better population control, like those in the south, receive a smaller share of tax revenue.
According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the total fertility rate of Andhra Pradesh as of 2020 declined to 1.5 %. Other southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Karnataka have also recorded declining fertility rates due to the population control measures adopted by them. As per the data, Tamil Nadu has recorded 1.4 % fertility rate, followed by Kerala and Telangana at 1.5% fertility rate, and Karnataka at 1.6%. The national average of fertility rate stands at 2 %.
The study essentially suggests that the southern states will have a bigger aging population compared to the other north states. This will lead to the state's increased expenditure on pensions and other welfare measures for the aging population.