Now that dust and euphoria around the recently concluded Assembly elections have settled, it is time to go beyond the optics and the narrative built by the parties and the media around the results and decipher the nature of the victory and defeat of parties in Karnataka.
The 2023 election in Karnataka was very important for more than one reason for the people of Karnataka and also the country at large. One important answer the people wanted to know from this election was whether the people of Karnataka are fed up with the Hindutva extravaganza played out in the last four years and hence defeat the vicious Hindutva politics. Or whether the strategy of communal polarisation of the BJP steered by the Modi-Shah duo, and its brute money power with micro social engineering, would triumph over misgovernance, corruption, price rise, unemployment and other issues related to life and livelihood. Added to this was another crucial question of whether the dominant Lingayat community would desert the BJP because of the perceived systematic humiliation and also whether the SC-ST communities understood the fraud committed by the BJP on them in both hiking the reservation and its reclassification.
Now that the people of Karnataka have voted decisively for a Congress government, Congress has got a comfortable and also safe majority with 135 seats in an Assembly of 224 legislators. It is 70 seats more than what BJP won this time. Congress also got a 7% vote share more than the BJP. The Congress has now overcome the immediate hurdle of the CM question with a workable formula where Siddaramaiah is the Chief Minister and DK Shivakumar is the Deputy Chief Minister.
But a deeper study of the results reveals that while the Congress can form the government comfortably for the next five years, this victory itself cannot be construed as the defeat of communalism or of the BJP. The BJP came to power one year after the 2018 elections, by engineering ‘Operation Kamala’ where 17 MLAs were poached by BJP from the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)]. But the Congress which had got 80 seats in the 2018 election, had a vote share of 38.04%, which is 1.5% more than that of the BJP. The JD(S) had 37 seats with an 18.36% vote share in the 2018 elections.
In 2023, Congress obtained a 43% vote share, which is 5% more than its share in 2018. And JD(S) lost around 18 seats with a loss of 5% vote share this time.
But the BJP, which could win in only 66 seats, thereby losing 40 seats compared to the 2018 verdict, has not lost its vote share. It has obtained a 36% vote share which is the same as the 2018 election. If you break it into absolute numbers the real picture will be clearer.
In 2018, 1.32 crore voters voted for BJP and 1.39 crore voted for the Congress. This time 27 lakh more voters voted for Congress taking its tally to 1.67 crore. While 67 lakh voters preferred JD(S) in 2018, only 52 lakh voters preferred it this time, bringing JD(S) vote share down from 18.36% to 13.3%.
On the other hand, in 2023, 1.4 crore voters voted for BJP. Thus, eight lakh more voters favoured BJP this time. This means, not only was the BJP’s 2018 vote share retained, but the party got more votes. Although, in a First Past The Post System model of electoral democracy, this micro picture of vote share does not matter, it reveals the dynamism of the social support a party has. That the BJP displayed this performance despite an anti-incumbency wave should be a cause of deep worry. Hence the euphoria over the BJP’s defeat is exaggerated and a close analysis of the nature of the mandate is required.
The electoral history of the BJP makes it clear that the vote share of the BJP has been consistently increasing since 1989 in a linear way. Thus, it was 4.14% in 1989, 16.99% in 1994 elections, 20.69 in 1999, 28.33% in 2004, 33.86 in 2008, 36% in 2018 and the same in 2023. Whatever may be the electoral success or failure of the BJP, it has consolidated its social base, unlike other parties including the Congress. This is the danger the secular forces have to reckon with. There is no reason for any complacency in the Congress victory. It is because the decisive 7% extra votes the Congress got in this election is more like a conditional contract over the guarantees it offered and might not have any other ideological or political glue to stay with Congress, unlike the BJP social base.
This becomes obvious when one compares how Congress fared in a similar situation. One important factor for the growth of the BJP and the decline of Congress in the late 90s is attributed to the discontent of dominant Lingayats against the Congress. Now the defeat of the BJP in 2023 is also attributed to the discontent of Lingayats against the BJP. But if one compares the two situations, the BJP seems to have navigated the crisis without much harm due to its Hindutva politics.
The students of Karnataka history know that in 1989, Congress returned to power defeating the then most unpopular Janata government by procuring 43.76% and 178 seats, the highest for any party in the electoral history of Karnataka.
But when the then Chief Minister Veerendra Patil, hailing from the Lingayat community, was unceremoniously dethroned by the then All India Congress Committee (AICC) chief Rajiv Gandhi, the simmering discontent of the Lingayats against Congress exploded and led to a massive desertion of Lingayats away from the Congress. Subsequently, in the 1994 elections, the Congress was drubbed and reduced to 34 seats with a mere 27% vote share. This was an unprecedented loss of 144 seats and a 16% vote share.
In a similar situation in 2023, Yediyurappa – the tall leader of the Lingayat community after Veerendra Patil – was unceremoniously removed from the CM chair, and another leader Jagadish Shettar was denied a ticket and shown utmost disrespect along with Laxman Savadi. Many leaders of the BJP were on record stating that BJP would not want to keep on appeasing Lingayats. A big desertion of the Lingayats from the BJP was expected after this.
But the mandate and its regional break-up do not show a big desertion of Lingayats away from the BJP. Firstly, its vote share is intact at 36%. Secondly, all the surveys and post-poll studies suggest that the rural, poor, women, Dalits, Adivasi and Muslims voted for Congress. But the BJP retained its vote share among forward castes and the dominant castes like Lingayats and even increased its vote share even among the Vokkaligas of south Karnataka.
The region-wise vote share of the BJP suggests a drop of only 3.5% and 2.6% for the BJP in the Lingayat-dominated Kittur Karnataka and Kalyana Karnataka regions, respectively.
Even this reduction cannot be solely attributed to Lingayat apathy. This time, the Lambanis and the Madigas – who had voted for the BJP against the Congress in the last few elections – seem to have voted against the BJP for multiple reasons. Especially the Lambanis, since the BJP government recommended reclassification of the Scheduled Caste (SC) reservation much to the dismay of touchable castes within the SC quota. The Lambanis’ vote preference could have impacted more than 63 constituencies, especially in north Karnataka. Similarly, Madigas – who would have otherwise preferred BJP over Congress – were also dissatisfied with the formula proposed by the BJP government.
That apart, Jagadish Shettar, a tall Lingayat leader who joined Congress citing humiliation just before the election, was defeated with a margin of over 35,000 by Mahesh Tenginkai, a young Lingayat BJP candidate and an erstwhile follower of Shettar. Even the post-poll survey conducted by the CSDS suggests that the Lingayats more or less remained with BJP. Unlike the Congress in 1994, the Lingayats almost remained with the BJP in 2023, despite similar humiliation. The reason is the Hindutvaisation of its social, spiritual and political elites which has percolated deep into the masses.
Even though the mandate suggests Congress victory, it can not be construed as a defeat of the communal agenda at all. This phenomenon becomes clearer if the impact of communal polarisation on the voters is studied. One important clue would be to know if the BJP's votes have increased, irrespective of whether it won or lost. Because if it had to be a mandate against the communal agenda by the people averse to the Hindutva extravaganza of the Sangh Parivar, the votes polled for BJP should have come down from 2018.
According to a reply by the Home Department in the Legislative Council on Sep 15, 2022, in the last five years, around 163 incidents of communal clashes and tensions took place in the state. Of which, 57 took place in Shivamogga, 46 in Dakshina Kannada and Udupi, 26 in Bagalkot and 10 in Kodagu.
The communal flare-up in Srirangapatna over a mosque and Udupi, which was the epicentre of the hijab crisis is also well-known. A study of the BJP’s performance in these constituencies could give an idea about the nature of the mandate of 2023. A comparative study of the vote share of the BJP in 2018 and 2023 in these constituencies could also give a clearer picture.
To start with, in Udupi, Yashpal Suvarna of BJP, who was responsible for igniting the hijab issue was elected with a thumping majority of 33,000 votes, which was 20,000 votes more than its margin in 2018. In south Karnataka, the BJP and Sangh Parivar tried hard to polarise the electorate on communal lines through the hijab issue, vilifying Tipu Sultan through the infamous Uri Gowda and Nanje Gowda episode etc.
Srirangapatna, being the capital of Tipu Sultan has been the epicentre of communal polarisation by the Hindutva forces, both its mainstream and its “fringe” elements. It was centred around liberating a Hanuman temple, allegedly converted to a mosque during Tipu’s period. BJP is traditionally weak in the Vokkaliga-dominated south Karnataka region including Srirangapatna. The BJP in 2018 polled hardly 11,241 votes. But this time after their relentless communal campaign BJP procured 42,079 votes, almost four times its earlier vote share!
Even in Melukote, another important constituency which has a strong presence of the farmers’ movement, adjacent to Srirangapatna, where the candidate of Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha, an offshoot of Karnataka Rajya Raitha Sangha (KRRS), won with a margin of 10,000 votes over the JD(S) candidate, the BJP has increased it vote share six-fold from 1,587 votes to 6,378 votes. Overall in this region which did not suffer from communal polarisation hitherto, the BJP vote share has gone up by 4% which is ominous.
According to the government, more than 57 communal incidents took place in the Shivamogga district. It would be interesting to know if the people of the district punished the BJP for its corruption, misgovernance or condoned it for its Hindutva politics. KS Eshwarappa, ex-cabinet minister in the BJP government, had become the face of corruption in the state. Even though he was denied a ticket this time, the not-so-popular BJP candidate did win with almost a similar vote share of 95,399 votes. In 2018, the senior most and more popular Eshwarappa polled 5,000 votes more.
The neighbouring Bhadravathi constituency, which witnessed communal strife during hijab and halal issues, had never been a BJP forte. It was always a fight between Congress and JD(S) where BJP votes never crossed 10,000 votes. But this time, even though the Congress candidate won with a lesser margin, the BJP vote share increased threefold from 8,866 to 21,014!
The other communal zone – according to a reply given by the state government in September 2022 – is the infamous Dakshina Kannada which is considered the Hindutva lab of Karnataka. Here, even though there is a marginal loss of 2.7% vote share for the BJP, it was an outcome of the aggressive backlash of Hindutva activists against the perceived moderate communalism by their leaders. It was quite visible in the Puttur constituency where the Congress candidate, a defector from the aggressive Hindutva camp and a rebel candidate from the Hindutva activists together defeated the BJP candidate. Except for another traditional victory for Congress in the Ullal constituency, in the rest of the constituencies, the reduced vote share of the BJP could only reduce its victory margin. Even the Congress victory in Puttur or the other victories of the BJP with reduced vote share is nothing, but an expression of aggressive Hindutva and not a vote for secularism.
In Vijayapura, the other burning communal furnace in Kittur Karnataka, the rabid Hindutva spokesperson Basavanagouda Yatnal, who is now sponsoring a free show of The Kerala Story in his constituency, won the elections with 93,326 votes, which is 15,000 more than what he got in 2018 and with an extra 4,000 margin.
The biggest loss of votes for the BJP came from the central Karnataka region, where the presence of Lambanis and the Madigas among the SCs and other ST electorate is sizeable, and their vote decides the fate of candidates. As explained earlier, the resolute vote of Lambanis and dissatisfaction of the Madigas over the reclassification of the reservation issue might have contributed to the loss of 8.2% vote share for BJP in this region On the other hand, Congress gained 8% here.
Since this issue-based support to Congress this time is wrought with sectarian interest, its support for Congress is only based on that and not on other broader political issues. It is also true that on the other hand, the RSS is penetrating the Lambani society, culturally and socially with its Hindutva politics and are fairly successful hitherto. But the Congress or any other secular formations does not have a counter-cultural and social strategy to counter that. Hence, the Lambanis dissociation with Sangh Parivar could also be temporary.
In the Bangalore metropolitan region consisting of 28 constituencies, the BJP has increased its vote share by 5.4% from 35.8% to 41.2%. In this region, its vote share is more than Congress by 1%.
The mandate of the people cannot be construed as an anti-communal mandate. The people of Karnataka are fed up with the lack of governance or misgovernance of the BJP government and also because of the price rise and the visible decline of the free rice quota. As a result, most of the poor and rural people have endorsed a contractual electoral agreement over these guarantees. This apart, the Muslims and SCs have voted against BJP strategically.
Apart from these victimised sections, the support from the rest of the populace might evaporate if the Congress fails in its guarantees.
For all we know, the Congress is a party wedded to the neoliberal economy and soft Hindutva politics. But a crisis-ridden neoliberal regime would not provide the required fiscal space for welfare measures. The incumbent CM Siddaramaiah is also known for his fiscal conservatism. So the Congress regime is inherently doomed to fail in this contract though not immediately but gradually.
Such a situation would provide a fertile space for the BJP to rebound with aggressive Hindutva using its monopoly over opposition space. There is an inherent danger in conceding the opposition space to BJP. The people's movement should dominate the opposition in the streets and restrict the BJP from deceiving the people with its pro-people postures. It is extremely necessary to be cautious of not falling into the trap of pro-Congressism in fighting against BJP. But the history of progressive politics in Karnataka is replete with the Congressisation of the voices of resistance.
Shivasundar is an activist and freelance journalist. Views expressed are the author’s own.