A recent survey released by a research organisation ‘C fore’ claims that the Congress will manage to overcome the anti-incumbency factor and form a majority government on its own in Karnataka. The survey carried out between July 19 and August 10 and 24679 voters across regions, predicts that the Congress will win with a big majority.

Former CM HD Kumaraswamy has called the survey a ‘big sham’, while the BJP has still mysteriously declined to comment on the same.

Kumaraswamy told reporters that the company carrying out the survey was headed by Premchand Palety who  is close to CM Siddaramaiah and is also the adviser to Home Minister Kempaiah.

“What else will such a person do, but bring out a survey supporting Siddaramaiah? They are even capable of saying Siddaramaiah will win 230 seats,” the JD (S) state chief said.

The survey predicts that the Indian National Congress will win 120-132 seats with a vote share of 43%. The survey implies that the Congress stands a chance to even increase its number of seats compared to the 2013 election. The party had won 122 seats in 2013 with a total vote share of 36.59%.

Principal opposition BJP is slated to come second winning 60-72 seats with a vote share of 32%, while the JD (S) is expected to win 24-30 seats with a total vote share of 17%. This means that although the BJP’s tally would increase from their currently held 40 seats, it will be at the expense of JD (S).

In 2013, the BJP and the JD (S) had won 40 seats each with each grabbing a vote share close to 20%.

Other than this, the JD (S) which has played a kingmaker in recent elections barring the 2013 polls is predicted to be reduced to an insignificant player.

Reacting to the survey, senior BJP leader KS Eashwarappa had said, “I am unaware of the survey”.

Media advisor to the CM, Dinesh Amin Mattu said the party expects a similar result as predicted by the survey.

“Usually there is anti-incumbency but this government has done real work. The only complaint the government has is that it has done work, but there is not enough publicity,” Mattu claimed while speaking with TNM.

What the survey says

According to the survey, only 29% of the respondents said that they are not satisfied with the current government. While 18% of the respondents said that they were extremely satisfied with the current government, another 53% said they were somewhat satisfied.   

Moreover, CM Siddaramaiah fared as the most popular CM with 46% of respondents supporting him. While BJP’s chief ministerial face had the support of 27%, Kumaraswamy only had 18% respondents backing him.

The survey claims that 44% of the respondents find the current Congress better functioning than the previous BJP government. 28% of the respondents voted for the BJP government. The previous JD (S) government had the support of only 10% of the surveyed voters.