The BJP’s reliance on the Lingayat votebase in Karnataka, believed to constitute around 17% of the state’s population, is well known. But now, with elections just a few months away, the BJP-led Karnataka government is facing an uphill task of placating the largest sub-sect of Lingayats — the Panchamasalis, who have been escalating their protests seeking reservation under the 2A category in the state. The protesters are now threatening to lay siege to the residence of Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai and the state secretariat Vidhana Soudha.

Panchamasalis, who make up almost 80% of the total Lingayat population in Karnataka, are currently categorised under 3B, which classifies them as Backward Class. Being put in 2A will give them the Most Backward Class tag, which means that the cap for reservation for members of the community for education and jobs will go up from 5% (under 3B) to 15% (under 2A).

The protests have political overtones that cannot be ignored. Despite being the biggest sub-sect, out of 10 Lingayat Chief Ministers so far, not a single one has been from the Panchamasali community. So the community, which is believed to have propelled BJP to power, feels that it lacks political representation.

Two ministers from the Panchamasali community – Murugesh Nirani and CC Patil – were deployed by the Bommai government to negotiate and convince the protesters, but they failed to do so. The Panchamasali seers had even set a deadline of August 22 for the state government to grant them the 2A category. Among the vocal political voices leading the protest is one of BJP’s own legislators – Basangouda Patil Yatnal, an aggressive, motormouth MLA who had nursed an aspiration to be former CM BS Yediyurappa's successor instead of Basavaraj Bommai.

For the Congress too, this is an opportunity to split the BJP’s core vote base – the Lingayats – without the support of which winning an election will be almost impossible for the party. A former Congress MLA Vijay Kashappanavar, who is also part of the protest, is hoping that it will revive his chances of winning. The Lingayats are believed to hold sway in around 100 of the 224 Assembly seats in the state.

The protests, led by influential seers, have been gaining ground especially in the Mumbai-Karnataka region, which is a BJP bastion. The protesters plan to lay siege to CM Bommai’s private residence in Shiggaon, which is also his Assembly constituency, on September 22 — a move that could even threaten Bommai’s reelection from his home constituency in the Assembly elections. They also plan to mobilise 2.5 million people and stage a gherao of the state secretariat Vidhana Soudha a month later. They have warned of dire consequences in the upcoming elections if their demands are not fulfilled.

The protests demanding 2A category reservation is not new, and has been a tricky issue even for Yediyurappa to resolve during his tenure. Yet, now the seers of the community have approached him to help resolve the issue for them. Despite their earlier disappointment with Yediyurappa, the protesters now say that they will rally around him and seek his intervention, as the current CM failed to keep his word. This elevates Yediyurappa’s position in the state BJP even further, which will prove to be a tricky matter for the BJP to handle in the coming days.

Watch this week on Let Me Explain: How Adani is trying to take over NDTV