The bye-poll in Palakkad, which has now been postponed by a week, has so far been packed with more histrionics and plot twists than a run-of-the-mill political potboiler. 

A high-stakes face-off despite the short term of office it offers – the Assembly term would end in the first quarter of 2026 – the campaign for Palakkad has spiralled into an emotionally charged showdown marked by seething discontent and stagey public feuds by leaders with bruised egos across party lines.

If P Sarin, head of the party’s digital media cell, shocked the Congress leadership by exiting the party in a huff over the candidature of Rahul Mamkoottathil and quickly landing as a turncoat candidate supported by the Left Democratic Front, Palakkad area committee member of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) Abdul Shukoor almost called it quits, alleging discrimination from district secretary EN Suresh Babu. Though the miffed leader was coaxed back into the party fold within a short window and made to attend a convention, it caused enough panic in the CPI(M) as Muslim votes are considered crucial in the polls. Sandip Varier, BJP’s state committee member and Palakkad native, sulking over an alleged insult during the election, said he wouldn’t campaign for the party candidate C Krishnakumar. Recently, at a wedding function, P Sarin was openly snubbed by Rahul and Shafi Parambil, who ignored his request for a handshake, following which the CPI(M) announced a handshake campaign. 

The election, originally scheduled to be held on November 13, was postponed to November 20 after parties requested a change in date because it clashed with the Kalpathy car festival. With two weeks left, a close contest is on the cards, and all three fronts are grappling with internal discord. 

The Congress, emboldened by the history of easy wins in Thrikkakara and Puthuppally bye-polls, announced Rahul’s name early enough, but the state president of the Youth Congress seems to have more foes within the party than outside. The choice of P Sarin, a medical doctor and a former Indian Audit and Accounts Service (IAAS) officer, who had been mercilessly taking on the Pinarayi Vijayan-led CPI(M) government also left a section of Left cadres seething.

After initial hiccups, the BJP zeroed in on C Krishnakumar, a seasoned local politician, though the party weighed the options of its time-tested vote multipliers, state president K Surendran and firebrand leader Shobha Surendran. The party had a smooth ride till Sandeep Varier, a state committee member also from Palakkad who is a popular face in TV debates, fired salvos against Krishnakumar for allegedly snubbing him during a campaign event and not attending his mother’s funeral two years ago. The CPI(M) has now extended their hand to Varier as well, though the RSS has embarked on urgent firefighting.

For the past three consecutive elections, the Palakkad Assembly constituency has remained a stronghold of the United Democratic Front (UDF), with the electorate choosing to back Shafi Parambil of the Congress, a popular young politician. But in 2016 and 2021, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) shocked the Communist Party of India (Marxist) by relegating the Left Democratic Front (LDF) to third place. 

In 2021, the BJP fielded E Sreedharan, one of India’s finest technocrats, who helped narrow Shafi’s victory margin to merely 3,859 votes. In 2016, when Shobha Surendran took on Shafi, the latter had won by more than 17,000 votes. 

Election trouble for Congress

On October 16, a day after the candidature of Rahul Mamkootathil was announced, Sarin held a presser and declared that if UDF loses, it would not be a loss for Rahul Mamkoottathil but for Rahul Gandhi. He warned that the party may face a Haryana-like situation. 

“Despite being a political novice, BJP candidate E Sreedharan garnered over more than half a lakh votes and lost narrowly to Shafi Parambil. Sreedharan’s professional reputation was clearly a key factor in his success, underscoring the candidate’s personal appeal in this constituency,” Sarin said, reading the letter he sent to the party’s national president Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, explaining why the party should have chosen him instead. 

Congress suffered another hit when AK Shanib, who has worked for 22 years in the district, raised the same allegations. The two of them were removed from the party.  

Shanib told TNM that he did not want to leave the Congress but was ousted. “The problems have persisted for some time now. It reached the tipping point when Rahul Mamkootathil was made the candidate. It happened because Shafi made a deal that Palakkad should have a candidate chosen by him if he has to contest in Vadakara. Several Youth Congress leaders are bearing the brunt of a caucus led by Shafi and the Leader of Opposition VD Satheesan,” he alleged. 

Shanib is campaigning for Sarin, and both have alleged that Shafi has struck a deal with the RSS. The alleged deal is that Palakkad will go to Rahul, and Shafi will ensure a seat for the BJP in the next election. The Congress too has made similar allegations against the CPI(M).

On the ground, some Congress leaders have found merit in criticism levelled by Sarin and Shanib.

“However, there is a time and place to say such things. They should not have addressed the internal conflicts with the media when there is space to discuss it in the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC). What is concerning is that they did not feel they could talk to senior leaders about it,” said a woman leader who was in Kannadi panchayat to attend an election convention. However, she exuded confidence that Rahul would retain the seat for UDF by a margin of at least 10,000 votes and said that the candidature of Priyanka Gandhi in Wayanad has energised Congress workers. 

In the 2021 elections, Shafi trailed behind Sreedharan until votes in Kannadi panchayat were counted. The speakers at the convention spoke about the weakening of LDF in Palakkad, CM Pinarayi Vijayan’s autocratic rule, the suicide of Kannur ADM Naveen Babu, and the disruption of Thrissur Pooram, an iconic festival of Kerala held in the neighbouring district of Thrissur.  

Political parties, including the Communist Party of India (CPI), whose candidate lost the Lok Sabha poll to Suresh Gopi of the BJP, and the Congress have alleged that there was a conspiracy behind the disruption of traditions associated with the festival, held a week before the general elections.

LDF hopes to reclaim past glory

The CPI(M) might have pacified the concerns expressed by Abdul Shukoor, but dissident activity continues to bother the party's district leadership. More than 500 party dissidents organised a convention in Kozhinjampara (outside the Palakkad Assembly constituency)  against the appointment of a former Congress member as CPI(M) local secretary by EN Suresh Babu. Even though they said they would continue to support the party, the local cadre asked why the party overlooked loyal party workers and preferred a Congressman. 

The LDF election managers, however, hope that the CPI(M) decision to field an independent candidate sans traditional hammer and sickle emblem would improve their prospects. Sarin, who is campaigning using the moniker ‘Doctor bro’, has a stethoscope as his symbol. 

The CPI(M) feels that by fielding an independent face, it could deflect the anti-incumbency at a time when the party and the government led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan are battling several controversies. His recent remarks on the Muslim community have also alienated a section of the minority and created a dent in the party’s image as a guardian of minority rights. After Pinarayi Vijayan gave an interview portraying Malappuram district as a hub of anti-national activities, Muslim organisations burnt his effigy and even sought his resignation. While the Chief Minister’s Office accused The Hindu of misrepresenting his words, the newspaper claimed the interview had been edited at the request of Kaizzen, the PR agency that allegedly arranged the interaction. CPI(M) state committee member P Jayarajan also released a book recently, which was highly critical of Jamaat-e-Islami in Kerala and Abdul Nazar Maudani, which led to the People's Democratic Party (PDP) burning the book's cover.

With limited time to campaign across four Assembly segments – Palakkad municipality, Pirayiri, Mathur, and Kannadi panchayats – Sarin’s campaign crew wants him to rush through his meeting with voters. A local leader felt campaigning in areas where the votes traditionally go to the Congress was a waste of time, but there were others who were impressed by Sarin’s ability to connect with people.

The CPI(M) had failed to yield electoral success in the past elections. Having always polled 42% of total votes on average till 2011, the party in the 2021 elections polled only 25% of votes. The party, however, has a strong cadre presence in the panchayats, ensuring that they get at least 35,000 votes in each Assembly election. 

When asked about the political climate in the state and the district, which is not favourable to the ruling party, Sarin said this was a challenge he relished. He said the aim was to secure victory for a party with secular and democratic values. 

“A party with secular and democratic values should win. Otherwise, parties getting votes from the fanbase or due to sympathy will win. It will be a blot on Kerala’s political legacy. We saw in the last election how a candidate who got secular votes turned back on the constituency by contesting in the Lok Sabha elections. But they are again contesting the elections by seeking the same secular votes. This shows the failure of the Congress to stick to a political ideology,” Sarin said, taking a dig at Shafi, who vacated the seat to successfully contest Lok Sabha polls from Vadakara.

BJP banks on familiar face, says no rift within party

Despite reports of dissidence in the BJP camp, party leaders told TNM that the political climate in Palakkad is favourable to them. Fissures had emerged within the influential Moothan community, in regions such as Moothanthara and Vadakkanthara, over Krishnakumar’s candidature. Posters of Sobha Surendran, who had contested against Shafi in 2016, reappeared in the constituency. After losing that election, Sobha, who managed to increase the party’s vote share, had accused Krishnakumar of sabotaging her chances at the election. 

Palakkad BJP district president KM Haridas said there is no rift within the party or communities that support them. Once an election campaign is announced, all of us will back that candidate, he said.   

In 2021, the constituency witnessed a direct battle between the BJP and Congress in around 46 booths, in which the latter prevailed. There were a total of 274 booths across the four Assembly segments, with E Sreedharan taking the lead in several booths of the Palakkad municipality. The BJP also managed to win around 62 booths with a margin of over 100 votes in each of them.

Krishnakumar is a familiar face and has been elected four times from the Palakkad municipality, where the BJP has 28 members out of the total 52. He is a former vice-chairman of Palakkad municipality and had performed exceptionally well in the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections from Malampuzha. 

An auto driver, Rasool Navas, who has his vote in Palakkad constituency, said the election would be a contest between the BJP and Congress. “C Krishnakumar is a popular face in Palakkad, but may not get the votes Sreedharan managed to get from voters in Kalpathy. These votes can go to either UDF or LDF. However, whichever way the results swing, the politics of the BJP would continue to be relevant.”