Weather blogger Pradeep John, who runs the popular Tamil Nadu Weatherman Facebook page, has suggested that Kerala could witness above normal monsoon in 2020. This would make it the third consecutive year that Kerala has witnessed above normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon, a record that the state last witnessed in the 1920s, writes the weather blogger.
In his Facebook post on April 16, Pradeep John writes that Kerala normally gets 2049 mm of rainfall during the southwest monsoon period between June and September. Observing that there have been several failed monsoons this century, he writes, “Kerala had very less monsoon years this century. 2007 was one great year with 2786 mm rainfall. Then things went quiet till 2013 when Kerala got 2562 mm rainfall. The monsoon magic was disappearing with just 2 super monsoons in 18 years.”
Even as this trend of reduced rainfall during the southwest monsoon was being observed, Kerala recorded massive rainfall in 2018, which led to floods and landslides across the state. The state received 2517 mm rainfall in 2018 and while the amount was less than 2007 and 2013, Pradeep points out that Kerala received this rainfall within a small window, which created the worst floods the state had witnessed since 1961 and 1924.
“Three years stand out as great flood events in the history of Kerala they are 1924, 1961 and 2018 (sic),” he states.
Noting that in 1922, Kerala recorded 2318 mm of rainfall, the following year the state recorded more rainfall at 2666 mm while 1924 brought a deluge with 3115 mm rainfall.
“Present - Can Kerala record another 2300 mm event?” he asks.
In 2018, when Kerala witnessed its worst floods in a century, the state recorded above normal rainfall of 2517 mm. Over 400 people were killed in the rains that triggered floods and landslides, and lakhs were left displaced. Last year, the state which was still picking itself up from the 2018 devastation, recorded excess rainfall of 2310 mm. At least 181 people were killed in rain-related incidents in 2019 while 72 were injured.
“How will 2020 be,long range models show very good rains to Kerala this year. I wont be surprised if Kerala again records over 2300 mm rainfall for the present year based on the past statistics (sic),” Pradeep John writes.
Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) in its rainfall forecast for the year said that the country will witness a normal rainfall and that South West Monsoons will hit the Kerala shores on June 1.
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