Contrary to the national media’s exit poll predictions that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would secure 1-3 seats in Kerala in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Kerala-based news channel Manorama News says the national front would once again fail to open an account in the state. The channel’s VMR exit poll, released on Sunday, June 2, maintains that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) would prevail in the state, winning 16 to 18 out of the 20 constituencies in the state with a 42.46% vote share.
In the case of the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), the exit poll says it would likely face a setback similar to the 2019 election. The poll predicts two to four seats for the LDF with a 35.09% vote share. It also indicates an increase in vote share for the BJP in Kerala, going from 15% in 2019 to 18.64%.
The poll predicts a second consecutive win for senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who is the incumbent Member of Parliament (MP) in Wayanad. It, however, suggests that Rahul’s vote share would decrease by 14%, with the LDF witnessing a simultaneous surge. Rahul is expected to secure the seat with 50.99% of votes, followed by LDF candidate Annie Raja with 35.48% and NDA’s K Surendran with 10.65%.
In 2019, Rahul had secured the Wayanad seat with a 64.67% vote share, marking the highest margin yet in south India. The VMR poll indicates that Annie Raja would gather 10.36% more votes than 2019 for the LDF this time, and the BJP leader K Surendran would boost NDA’s vote share by 3.44%.
The exit poll also says UDF candidate and incumbent Thiruvananthapuram MP Shashi Tharoor would secure the seat with a 37.86% vote share. It predicts the NDA candidate Rajeev Chandrasekhar would come in second position with a 35.25% vote share, followed by LDF’s Pannian Raveendran with a 25.58% vote share.
The poll predicts that Vadakara — the constituency that witnessed a star battle between incumbent MLAs KK Shailaja (LDF) and Shafi Parambil (UDF) — would stand with the LDF. Shailaja, who was Kerala’s health minister in the first Pinarayi Vijayan ministry, is expected to secure the seat with a 41.56% vote share. Shafi is likely to garner 39.65% of the vote share, followed by NDA’s Praful Krishna with 17.69%.
Though the BJP was expecting a win with actor-politician Suresh Gopi in Thrissur, the VMR poll suggests the voters would favour UDF’s V Muralidharan with a 37.53% vote share. It says LDF’s VS Sunil Kumar would come second with 30.72% votes, while Suresh Gopi would once again be relegated to the third place with 29.55%.
In Alathur and Kannur constituencies, the exit poll indicates a tight contest between the UDF and LDF. The poll places UDF’s Remya Haridas, who is the incumbent MP in Alathur, and LDF’s K Radhakrishnan, who is a Kerala cabinet minister, at approximately 41% vote share. Similarly in Kannur, UDF’s K Sudhakaran and LDF’s MV Jayarajan are both expected to secure around 42% of the vote share.
VMR Exit Poll predictions in other constituencies
Attingal
UDF: Adoor Prakash - 37.48%
LDF: V Joy - 30.94%
NDA: V Muralidharan - 28.73%
Kollam
UDF: NK Premachandran - 45.33%
LDF: M Mukesh - 34.42%
NDA: G Krishnakumar- 18.03%
Pathanamthitta
UDF: Anto Antony - 36.53%
NDA: Anil Antony - 32.17%
LDF: Thomas Isaac - 27.7%
Mavelikkara
UDF: Kodikunnil Suresh - 39.84%
LDF: CA Arun Kumar - 38.24%
NDA: Baiju Kalasala - 20.55%
Kottayam
UDF: Francis George - 41.33%
LDF: Thomas Chazhikkadan - 33.43%
NDA: Thushar Vellappally - 20.02%
Alappuzha
UDF: KC Venugopal - 43.88%
LDF: AM Ariff - 32.78%
NDA: Sobha Surendran - 22.07%
Idukki
UDF: Dean Kuriakose - 43.69%
LDF: Joyce George - 30.31%
NDA: Sangeetha Viswanathan - 21.2%
Ernakulam
UDF: Hibi Eden - 36.74%
LDF: KJ Shine - 30.22%
NDA: Dr KS Radhakrishnan - 22.23%
Chalakudy
UDF: Benny Behanan - 36.7%
LDF: C Raveendranath - 30.95%
NDA: KA Unnikrishnan - 18.61%
Alathur
UDF: Remya Haridas - 41%
LDF: K Radhakrishnan - 41%
NDA: Dr TN Sarasu -17.49%
Palakkad
LDF: A Vijayaraghavan - 39.8%
UDF: VK Sreekandan - 38.66%
NDA: C Krishnakumar - 20.25%
Ponnani
UDF: MP Abdussamad Samadani - 47.3%
LDF: KS Hamsa - 37.61%
NDA: Nivedita Subrahmanian - 12.91%
Malappuram
UDF: E T Mohammad Bashir - 52.56%
LDF: VA Vaseef - 39.69%
NDA: Dr Abdul Salam - 6.85%
Kozhikode
UDF: M K Raghavan - 46.16%
LDF: Elamaram Kareem - 34.39%
NDA: MT Ramesh - 17.75%
Kannur
UDF: K Sudhakaran - 42%
LDF: MV Jayarajan - 42%
NDA: C Raghunath - 12.4%
Kasaragod
UDF: Rajmohan Unnithan - 47.72%
LDF: MV Balakrishnan - 34.17%
NDA: ML Ashwini - 17.12%