Exit polls for the state of Rajasthan show an upper hand for the BJP, indicating that the anti-incumbency sentiment has seemed to have worked again in the state. Except for India Today-Axis My India, which predicts a hung Assembly, Jann Ki Baat, ​​Republic-PMarq, and ABP News-C Voter show the BJP to be leading in Rajasthan, which went to polls on November 25.

The close contest between Congress – which was hoping to break the quarter-century trend, where the Congress and BJP governments have alternated each time – might end with BJP gaining the upper hand, going by the exit polls.  Jann Ki Baat predicted the BJP to win anywhere from 100 to 122 seats and the Congress a distant second with 62 to 85 seats. 

The Republic-PMarq exit poll predicts a BJP win with 105-125 seats, while the Congress is predicted to win 69 to 81 seats. PMarq also says 5 to 15 seats will be won by others. 

ABP News-C Voter polls show a BJP with 94 to 114 seats and the Congress with 71 to 91 seats. The exit poll also showed a 0 to 5 seat prediction for BSP and others to get anywhere from 9 to 19 seats.

However, India Today-Axis My India indicated a possible hung assembly with the Congress projected to win 86 to 106 seats and the BJP projected to win 80 to 100 seats.

The polls predict a 9 to 18 seat win for others including BSP. 

Elections were held for 199 out of the 200 Assembly seats on November 23 in a single phase. Elections in Karanpur of Sriganganagar district were postponed following the death of Congress candidate Gurmeet Singh Koonar. While Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot has continued to be the face of the Congress, the BJP, this time around, has not projected ex-Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje as the CM candidate.

In 2018, the Congress party won 100 seats out of the 200 Assembly seats. The ruling BJP facing anti-incumbency, won 73 seats. The BSP won six seats, while the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLTP) won three seats, and the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) won two seats. The CPI(M) also won two seats. Thirteen independent candidates won their seats, defeating national and state parties.