On September 21, Sri Lanka will hold its first presidential election since the catastrophic economic collapse of 2022. In a break from tradition, the race is largely a three-way one—unlike the usual two-candidate matches that elections tend to be—with no clear front runner. For the first time in Sri Lanka’s history, the country’s election commission is prepared for a process called ‘second round’ in the event no candidate emerges with an absolute majority of 50% or more of the votes.

The top three contenders among the 38 candidates are current President and United National Party (UNP) leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) president Anura Kumara Dissanayake representing the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, and Leader of the Opposition Sajid Premadasa, head of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB).

Voting opened at 07:00 am and is set to close at 4:00 pm on September 21, at which time Colombo City Deputy Election Commissioner MKSKK Bandaramap has said counting of postal ballots will begin. Bandaramap also added that counting of in-person votes is expected to begin at 6pm. The results are expected on September 22. The Commission’s chairman RMAL Rathnayake has assured that the results will be announced on schedule even in the event of a second round counting. 

What happens if no one has an absolute majority?

Sri Lankan Presidential elections are governed by the Presidential Elections Act. At the ballot box, voters can choose upto three candidates and mark their order of preference near the candidate’s name and symbol with the numbers 1-3. 

If no candidate secures 50% of the total votes polled in an election with more than 3 candidates, all of them except the top two will be eliminated. Returning officers will then count the second preference votes cast for either of the remaining candidates. If neither candidate is marked as second preference by voters, the voter’s third preference will be considered instead, provided it is for one of the remaining candidates. 

Though no presidential election in Sri Lanka’s history has come to this stage, the Election Commission is prepared for second preference counting. The Commission’s chairman Rathnayake, told a media outlet that returning officers have been trained for the process. 

Why the uncertainty?

Austerity measures imposed by the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) USD 2.9 billion bailout have hit Sri Lankans hard, with reduced public spending and increased taxes. Anger about the economic crisis remains high. 

The three leading candidates will be evaluated by voters on their approach and stances towards the country’s painful economic recovery and the IMF-imposed austerity measures. The bailout from the IMF has led to reduced subsidies, decrease in public sector spendings, tax hikes, struggling small businesses and more. As Himal reported last year, Sri Lanka also witnessed a drastic reduction in national private investments and speculative capital.

While the country has recovered from the horrific fuel shortages and long lines for food and other essentials, which incumbent President Wickremesinghe has highlighted on the campaign trail, he belongs to Sri Lanka’s “old guard”. He was after all Prime Minister during the 2022 collapse that led to the massive Janatha Aragalaya (the People’s Struggle) protests and the ousting of the Rajapaksas. 

The other two candidates, Premadasa and Dissanayake, have denounced the government’s current measures to bring the country out of its economic slump, and have branded it corrupt. 

Premadasa, a centrist, is promising “social justice economics” and an increase in public spending. Dissanayake’s “progressive” and Leftist stance is reported to have impressed younger voters. However, older Sri Lankans still remember the JVP’s violent insurrections and Sinhala chauvinism of the 1970s. 

The Tamil community is divided—some favour a poll boycott, others back Premadasa, while some support the “common Tamil candidate” Pakkiyaselvam Ariyanethiran, fielded by parties like the Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO) and Eelam People’s Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF). Many from the community feel no candidate truly represents their interests. 

Premadasa has the backing of the country’s largest Tamil party, the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK)—a key party in the now diminished Tamil National Alliance (TNA). TNA was once a powerful representative body for Tamils in the north-east of Sri Lanka. But even this support from ITAK for Premadasa comes after days of chaos and internal rifts about whom to support. 

Read: Old guard vs. new voices: The top three contenders for Sri Lankan polls 

Also read: A chauvinist flag and war crimes: Tamil perspectives of Sri Lanka protests