The AIADMK government has sounded the poll bugle for Assembly Elections 2021 and is rolling full steam ahead, announcing welfare measures, new schemes and even rolling back controversial decisions.

It began with the decision to scrap board exams for classes 5 and 8 after vocal protests from parents and schools in the state.  According to sources in the AIADMK, the pressure to conduct the examinations in the first place, came from the BJP which wanted to experiment with these tests in Tamil Nadu to discern the reaction of the public and results of the students.

"By saying no to these exams, we have also said no to the Centre," says a source in the AIADMK.

This was followed by targeted efforts to improve their standing in multiple regions in the state. 

"We started with the Kongu belt because we already have a good presence in this region and we need to solidify support there," says an AIADMK source.

The recent budget saw an allocation of Rs 500 crore for the Avinashi-Athikadavu water scheme.

Also, Rs.200 crore was sanctioned for the Coimbatore elevated highway while announcements were made for industrial parks and agro processing clusters in the West. This was in addition to six under-construction flyovers in Coimbatore and 10 kilometre elevated expressway work likely to commence on Avinashi Road. These announcements came just days after EPS laid the foundation stone for the Advanced Institute of Integrated Research on Livestock and Animal Sciences in Salem, a projected estimated to cost Rs.1,024 crores.

"The AIADMK wants to be seen as a party which has done a lot of work for Western Tamil Nadu," says RK Radhakrishnan, Associate Editor for Frontline. "Coimbatore region has been largely neglected in the past but now that senior leaders in the party are from there they want to consolidate their caste vote (of the Gounder community). When Jayalalithaa was in power she did not give this kind of importance to this region," he adds.

Party heavyweights including Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami, Municipal Administration Minister SP Velumani and Electricity Minister P Thangamani, hail from this region.

Moreover, Radhakrishnan points out that the lack of a strong DMK leader in the area makes it important for the AIADMK to maintain control over the region.

"It would mean ensuring that 52 constituencies vote in our favour," says a source in the AIADMK. "Once that was taken care of, we could focus on other regions," he adds.

Next in line for the AIADMK was the Delta region, considered to be a stronghold of the DMK. It consists of districts including Pudukottai,Nagapattinam,Thiruvarur,Thanjavur and Cuddalore. On February 20, the Tamil Nadu government introduced a Bill in the Assembly to declare the Cauvery Delta as a protected agricultural zone.

It prohibited the setting up of zinc, copper and aluminium smelter plants, iron and steel processing industries, oil and coal-based exploration projects for hydrocarbon, methane and natural gases and ship breaking industries in the protected zone.

The move comes three years after protests broke out in Neduvasal and other districts in the delta over hydrocarbon exploration projects.

The government which did not yield to multiple protests had turned around just in time for a poll year. Sources in the AIADMK insist that the decision was not a political one, but it was long in the making.

"It is a combination of intentions," says the AIADMK source. "We are electorally weak in the Delta and need to focus on people there and at the same time we also wanted to protect agriculture there. In 10 years, if we allow these projects to continue, the rice bowl of the state would have become a parched land," he adds.

Moreover, the decision had to be made carefully.

"The pressure from oil companies is immense. Despite the Centre insisting on allowing for new hydrocarbon projects, we stood up to them," says the AIADMK leader. "We made sure that the Bill was drafted in a way that angled on agriculture which is a purely state subject," he explains.

As for southern Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK is looking at infrastructure and basic services to make inroads.

"Hospitals in areas like Virudhunagar and Thoothukudi will ensure basic medical needs are met. Right now people are forced to go all the way to Madurai. We are still working on this region," he says.

Too little too late?

Political analysts admit that the AIADMK's game plan for the elections is headed in the right direction but express their reservations.

"The AIADMK has definitely begun its campaign. Their decisions will incur the wrath of the BJP and will also create a perception that they are moving away from the Centre, which will help their image in Tamil Nadu, " says 'Tharasu' Shyam, a political analyst. "And while farmers have welcomed the government's Bill regarding the delta, it is to be seen if it will translate to actual votes," he adds.

Shyam further points out that the last six months before an election, can make or break a party.

"Be it how the 2G scam affected the DMK's prospects or the wedding of her adopted son ruined Jayalalithaa's electoral prospects, the last mile is very crucial for any party," he says.

However, Bharath, a senior journalist says this is 'too little too late'.

"The Delta region has been cleverly handled and their actions have left even the DMK dumbfounded. But the AIADMK has such a large ground to cover and they have to face issues like anti-incumbency, opposition to their alliance with the BJP and also the dissent over their support for CAA," he points out.

The AIADMK, however, says it has a plan in hand.

"There is not much we can do about the CAA now but we have decided that if the Centre insists on including three questions in the NPR, we will follow the path of other states and pass a resolution to not carry it out," says a source in the AIADMK.