Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majilis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is yet to release the names of its candidates for the upcoming Telangana Assembly elections to be held on November 30. The delay is reportedly due to internal issues that have cropped up as the party, which has seven MLAs in Hyderabad, is likely to change some of them. The party is facing some resistance from current Charminar MLA Mumtaz Ahmed, who may not be given a ticket this time. Moreover, word in political circles is also that the AIMIM may contest a few seats like Nizamabad (urban) outside of Hyderabad, as it did in the 2014 state elections.
In the December 2018 state polls, the AIMIM had announced its list about three months in advance. Apart from Mumtaz Khan, the name of ex-GHMC AIMIM Mayor Majid Hussain has also cropped up as a possible candidate for the Yakutpura seat, as incumbent four-time MLA and party general secretary Syed Pasha Quadri is facing health issues. While Pasha Quadri’s replacement is not surprising, Mumtaz Ahmed Khan’s disgruntlement may cause a bit of trouble for AIMIM chief and Hyderabad Lok Sabha MP Asaduddin Owaisi.
A senior AIMIM leader told TNM that the party’s list will be out in the next few days and that there is no issue with Mumtaz Khan. “There are no problems as such, and the party will contest in seats outside of Hyderabad. But how many, and the names of all candidates will be decided upon and announced soon,” he added.
The AIMIM has been winning seven Assembly seats from the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) area since 2009. Six of them - Chandrayangutta, Bahadurpura, Charminar, Yakutpura, Malakpet and Karwan - fall within the old city areas. Nampally is the only one which is outside of it. The Nampally seat is also the only one where the party is likely to face stiff competition from Congress candidate Feroz Khan, who lost to AIMIM’s Jaffer Hussan in 2018 by over 15,000 votes. Feroze Khan has been losing the seat to Hussain thrice since 2009.
If the AIMIM does contest in seats outside Hyderabad, it could have an effect on the result, even if the party candidate can’t win. While it contested in eight seats during the 2018 polls, it contested in 20 seats in the 2014 elections. Though the AIMIM in 2014 retained its seven Assembly seats it had won in 2009, the party made inroads in the districts, impacting the result in a few places. For example, AIMIM’s Mirza Majaz Ali Shaik secured 31,840 votes in the Nizamabad (urban) seat for the 2014 state polls, coming second against the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi’s (BRS) winner Bigala Ganesh.
In the Nizamabad (urban) seat where Muslims are believed to be about 20% of the electorate, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came third with over 27,000 votes while the Congress got just 25,400 votes. If the AIMIM had not contested, in all probability, its votes would have been with the Congress, the party that Muslims have been traditionally voting for outside of Hyderabad. However, ever since the BRS won in Telangana, there is a perceptible shift towards it, thanks to its minority friendly image and also to the AIMIM’s support.
Post the 2014 elections, both the AIMIM and Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) have maintained that they are on ‘friendly terms’. In fact, the BRS also contests in seats in the old city, which the AIMIM says are “friendly” contests. It is to be seen how the BRS reacts or responds if Owaisi decides to field candidates outside of Hyderabad. The two other seats which it will contest in all likelihood apart from the seven it has are Rajendranagar and Jubilee Hills, for which it had fielded non-Muslims during the 2014 elections. They managed to secure 25.4% and 21.5% of the vote share in both the segments, which the BRS won.
“The major allegation against AIMIM is that it is a spoiler for the Congress and regional parties, which also rely on Muslim votes. The Congress is attempting to consolidate its vote bank in Telangana, so it is a strategic move by AIMIM. Muslims since 2014 have been supporting the BRS. If AIMIM decides to contest seats out of Hyderabad it can drastically affect the outcome. It can split or take five to 10 percent of the votes hare in seats like Mahbubnagar. It works on religious identity, as a representative of the Muslim minority,” said E Venkatesu, a faculty member with the University of Hyderabad’s Political Science department.
Venkatesu said the AIMIM was however not as successful as the Congress party which asserted itself and took a stand in favour of Muslims. “AIMIM became active only during the elections in Karnataka. In Telangana, Muslims are not facing issues like they did in Karnataka. As of now there is nothing to suggest that Muslim voters will shift to the Congress,” he added.