As the Telangana State Assembly election is scheduled for November 30, all parties are striving to earn the trust of the voters in order to emerge victorious. In this second term, the Bhartiya Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is grappling with a common phenomenon in Indian politics known as anti-incumbency. Congress is rapidly gaining ground, partly due to its success in the Karnataka Election, the Bharat Jodo Yatra, and its efforts to position itself as the primary opposition to the BRS party. The BJP is endeavoring to attract voters by leveraging the charisma of Modi and promising development for Telangana. IPS officer-turned-politician RS Praveen Kumar is championing the cause of social justice and working diligently to present the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) as a viable alternative to the established parties. The All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) will retain seven MLAs in Hyderabad.
In the context of this four-sided electoral competition, it is imperative to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of each party and speculate on their prospects in the upcoming elections.
KCR still holds the title of being the charismatic leader in Telangana. The developmental initiatives, particularly the Kaleshwaram Lift Irrigation Project, the Palamuru-Rangareddy Lift Irrigation Project, efforts to draw investments into Hyderabad, and the successful implementation of schemes like Rythu Bandhu and Dalita Bandhu, have bolstered the BRS party's position and helped it withstand the challenges of anti-incumbency. However, there are several issues that have put pressure on the BRS. These include concerns related to dynasty politics, controversies surrounding the Telangana State Public Service Commission Group-1 and other government exam paper leaks, dissent among the youth, the failure to provide MLA tickets to backward castes, especially the Mudiraj community, and allegations of corruption against MLA candidates.
While KTR is taking on the responsibility of election campaigning, KCR is expected to step in and play a prominent role in wooing voters with his characteristic, assertive Telangana-style political speeches during the elections. One unique advantage KCR possesses is his intimate understanding of the accents and nuances of various districts in Telangana, enabling him to effectively convey political messages to the voters. This sets him apart from other leaders. Furthermore, the BRS party has an opportunity in the fact that there are numerous competitors, making the prospect of forming alliances unlikely.
The Congress party has experienced a surge in energy following the Bharat Jodo Yatra and the results of the Karnataka election. The prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment against the BRS in the state and the BJP at the central level provides a significant advantage to the party. Rahul Gandhi's call for a nationwide caste census is helping the party in attracting support from the backward castes (BCs) in the state. With the inclusion of former BRS leaders, the party's position has improved in Khammam, Nalgonda, and Mahabubnagar districts. The party is actively engaging with the youth by addressing the issue of unemployment in Telangana.
However, the party faces a substantial disadvantage in the form of internal divisions and potential dissent that may arise during the distribution of election tickets. Additionally, the party may struggle to perform well in the northern districts of Adilabad, Nizamabad, and Karimnagar due to a lack of prominent leaders in those areas. It is notable that many Congress MLA aspirants are primarily based in Delhi and Hyderabad rather than actively working in their constituencies.
The BJP heavily relies on the charisma of Modi and the policies of the Union government. The recent announcements of a Turmeric Board in Nizamabad district and a Tribal University in Mulugu may bolster their election campaign efforts. The inclusion of former BRS leaders who have joined the BJP brings fresh perspectives to the party. However, the BJP is grappling with internal conflicts, marked by the struggle between long standing RSS-trained leaders and new entrants from other parties and ideologies. The party currently holds three MLA seats and is putting in considerable effort to focus on 20-25 constituencies.
One notable challenge for the party is the scarcity of strong MLA candidates in many assembly constituencies. Additionally, the issue of the Caste Census is expected to have an adverse impact on the BJP's prospects in a BC-dominated Telangana state.
RS Praveen Kumar is diligently striving to emphasize that Bahujans hold a significant presence in Telangana, and he is portraying the BRS as working against their interests. The party is at the forefront of addressing the TSPSC paper leak issue and is making efforts to establish connections with the youth. The BSP is strategically focusing on constituencies that can potentially lead to victories, although it faces a shortage of grassroots-level cadres. Praveen Kumar is actively working to bridge this gap. It is apparent that the party will split votes in several areas, becoming a deciding factor in at least 30 constituencies.
The BRS secured nearly a 12% vote share in the 2018 election, emerging as a significant player. Several factors contributed to its rise, including the early election call by KCR, which left the opposition with limited time for preparation. However, the current political landscape presents a different scenario. Opinion polls consistently project a narrower 5-6% vote share gap between the BRS and Congress, with this segment being identified as the swing voters in the upcoming election.
In pursuit of this crucial 5% vote share, the BRS is strategically targeting the Most Backward Classes (MBC) vote bank. This strategy is supported by two key factors: the BC Bandhu program, primarily catering to MBC castes, and the appointment of the MBC Corporation chairman. To counter these efforts, the BJP is promoting the PM-Viswakarma yojana to attract MBC voters, while Congress is relying on support from women and youth to bridge the gap.
It's worth noting that unlike Karnataka, there isn't a comprehensive social engineering mechanism that can significantly boost Congress's prospects. Should Congress surpass a 30% vote share in this election, it could pose challenges for the BRS, as maintaining a crucial 40% vote share is essential. Even a slight decrease in this percentage could cost the BRS approximately 25-30 MLA seats. The role of first-time young voters will also be pivotal in determining the election's outcome.
The Telangana State Assembly Election of 2023 promises a dynamic political landscape, with parties vigorously vying for voter trust and electoral success. The BRS party faces the challenge of anti-incumbency, while Congress gains momentum from recent successes and the BJP relies on Modi's appeal. The BSP, under Praveen Kumar, seeks to establish itself as a credible alternative. The role of 5% swing voters is pivotal, and their choices may determine the outcome. As we approach the election, the strengths and weaknesses of each party, combined with shifting voter sentiments, will shape the future of Telangana's political landscape.
G Kiran Kumar is a PhD research scholar in the Department of Political Science at the University of Hyderabad. He also serves as a Steering Committee member of the Global South Policy Process Research Network, which is affiliated with the International Public Policy Association (IPPA).