“We’ve made assurances through our Super 6 promises, but it’s daunting. We’re struggling to move forward, and the people of the state need to understand the challenges we face” — Chandrababu Naidu, Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, during the Assembly session on July 26, 2024.
This article examines the Telugu Desam Party’s (TDP) attempts to fulfil its welfare promises amid Andhra Pradesh’s financial difficulties and explores how negotiations with the Union government might impact the state’s situation and TDP’s political future.
The TDP-BJP-Jana Sena coalition’s landslide victory in the May 2024 elections is often seen as a rejection of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s welfare-focused governance. However, a closer look reveals that the TDP’s campaign wasn’t just a critique of Jagan’s leadership but also an endorsement of more ambitious social welfare promises under the "Super 6," which aimed to enhance Jagan’s programs and introduce new schemes.
During Jagan’s tenure, over ₹2.54 lakh crore were spent on direct benefit transfer schemes, aiding millions. Despite these efforts, the TDP managed to appeal to voters by promising to expand these programs and drive development they argued was missing under Jagan’s rule.
As part of the Super 6, the TDP committed to expanding the Amma Vodi (scheme to provide financial assistance to mothers of school-going children to prevent them from dropping out, now renamed ‘Talliki Vandanam’), by doubling the program’s expenditure to over ₹13,000 crore annually. Social security pensions were increased from ₹3,000 to ₹4,000, raising costs from ₹21,300 crore to ₹33,100 crore, while the cash transfer scheme for farmers was boosted from ₹13,500 to ₹20,000.
Despite the coalition government taking charge three months ago, the only promise fulfilled thus far has been the increase in social security pensions from ₹3,000 to ₹4,000. Other commitments, such as the Amma Vodi cash transfer of ₹20,000 to BPL women for sending their children to school, scheduled for June, and the free bus scheme for women, are still pending.
The party also vowed to revive Anna Canteens to provide subsidised meals, introduce a ₹3,000 monthly unemployment allowance, offer three free gas cylinders, provide ₹1,500 each to women aged 19-59, and ensure free bus travel for women. These initiatives significantly add to the state's financial burden. However, with Jana Sena and BJP known for their scepticism towards social welfare schemes, the burden of fulfilling these promises largely falls on TDP as the senior coalition partner.
Andhra Pradesh's financial landscape is challenging. A white paper released by the TDP coalition on July 26 revealed that the state’s debt stands at ₹9.74 lakh crore, with a revenue-expenditure gap of ₹1.46 lakh crore for 2024-25. This financial strain casts doubt on the feasibility of TDP’s promises. In addition to welfare schemes, the TDP has pledged to develop Amaravati and undertake other costly initiatives.
To balance its ambitious promises with fiscal responsibility, the TDP must negotiate better terms with the Union government, especially in key areas like NREGA, the Public Distribution System (PDS), social security pensions, and farmer cash transfers.
During its 2014-2019 term, the TDP effectively utilised the 40% material component from the Union government under MGNREGA to bolster state infrastructure. However, the Union government's argument that wealthier states like Andhra Pradesh are disproportionately using MGNREGA funds, which are intended for poorer regions, adds to the state’s challenges.
On May 7, 2024, the Union government sent a letter to Andhra Pradesh highlighting discrepancies in its MGNREGA implementation. The letter noted that the state was failing to meet the requirement to allocate at least 60% of MGNREGA expenditure to agriculture and allied activities, with its actual allocation being only 41.65%. The Union’s scrutiny of the rules complicates the state’s ability to use MGNREGA funds as effectively as it did during the 2014-2019 period, when the Union government was more lenient and states had relatively more flexibility in MGNREGA implementation.
Social security pensions present another significant hurdle. For 2024-25, Andhra Pradesh projects a social security pensions bill of ₹33,100 crore, while the Union government’s contribution remains just ₹309 crore (CAG Report 2022-23). Similarly, the state’s PDS expenditures stand at ₹5,600 crores annually, supporting nearly 40% of ration cardholders. AP has historically pushed for higher PDS quotas, citing discrepancies compared to wealthier states like Maharashtra and Karnataka.
The recent Supreme Court ruling entitling all E-Shram registrants to ration cards marks another missed opportunity. While other states leveraged this ruling to request increased PDS quotas, Andhra Pradesh lagged, with only 3,200 E-Shram registrations cited in its affidavit, despite over 80 lakh actual registrations.
Signs of strain are already visible. Despite campaign promises, the TDP coalition issued a circular on July 9, 2024, limiting Amma Vodi entitlements to one child per household, contradicting their pledge. Although Minister Nara Lokesh reassured the public, this reversal underscores the challenges ahead. The Amma Vodi cash transfer to BPL women, which was scheduled to be distributed in June before schools reopened, is yet to be fulfilled reflecting the government’s ongoing struggle to meet its commitments.
Media reports also indicate that the government is considering cutting the number of pensioners by 2.5 lakh, citing fraud—a move likely intended to ease fiscal pressure.
In conclusion, despite TDP’s electoral success, the real test lies in delivering on welfare promises amid severe financial constraints. The Union government’s reliance on TDP for a majority provides an opportunity to negotiate better terms for programs like MGNREGA, pensions, and PDS, potentially benefiting Andhra Pradesh. However, failure to secure these funds could frame Naidu as a leader who prioritised grand visions like Amaravati over the needs of vulnerable citizens. The coming months will be decisive.
Chakradhar Buddha is a senior researcher associated with LibTech India. Views expressed are the author’s own.