Chandrababu Naidu is set to become the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh for a fourth term. The TDP-JSP-BJP alliance, led by Naidu, has decimated the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) in what is likely to be a landslide victory. As of 4 pm on Tuesday, June 4, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) was leading in 133 out of the 175 Assembly seats, with seven wins already declared. With 13 leads, the YSRCP was trailing way behind Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party (JSP), which was leading in 21 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was leading in eight seats. The Andhra Pradesh unit of the Congress, led by outgoing CM YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s sister Sharmila, was yet to make a dent.
If the trend continues, the YSRCP may struggle to even be recognised as the official Opposition party in the Assembly. The party needs 10% of the seats, or 18 seats, to be recognised as the main Opposition and for Jagan to be the Leader of Opposition.
In the Lok Sabha polls too, out of the 25 seats, the TDP was leading in 16, YSRCP in four, BJP in three, and JSP in two. In the previous LS election in 2019, the YSRCP won 22 seats while the TDP won only three. Until now, the BJP had zero presence in the state.
Following Chandrababu Naidu’s arrest in the alleged skill development scam case on September 9, 2023, the JSP, headed by actor-politician Pawan Kalyan, allied with the TDP in a show of solidarity and protest against the YSRCP. JSP was already in an alliance with the BJP in the state by then. Ahead of the Andhra Assembly and Lok Sabha polls, the TDP rejoined the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), six years after they had walked out. Naidu had left the NDA just before the 2019 Assembly elections, upset over the Union government’s failed assurance of granting special category status to Andhra Pradesh after its bifurcation from Telangana.
While TDP alone has managed to go way past the halfway mark on its own, the JSP too has performed on par with the YSRCP, despite this being only the second time the party is contesting elections and the absence of many strong leaders or known faces. Pawan Kalyan himself, who lost from both seats he contested in 2019, has won from Pithapuram with a comfortable margin of over 67,000 votes.
TDP general secretary and Naidu’s son Lokesh, who lost from Mangalagiri in 2019, is now leading there by over 1 lakh votes.
The three-party alliance won the Undi Assembly constituency with over 56,000 votes, where they had fielded ex-YSRCP MP K Raghu Ram Krishna Raju. Krishna Raju is one of the most prominent faces of the forward caste Raju community and managed to consolidate the vote bank in his favour.
The alliance again won Rajahmundry City, Rajahmundry Rural, and Kovvur Assembly segments in East Godavari district with 71404, 64,090, and 33,946 votes respectively as well as Tanaku and Gopalapuram Assembly constituencies in West Godavari district. The East and West Godavari districts are dominated by members of the Kapu community, who have been fighting for reservation. With Jagan taking a stance against reservation and Pawan Kalyan, a popular Kapu face, joining the alliance, votes here went to the alliance.
After a thumping majority winning 151 out of the 175 seats in the 2019 Assembly elections, the YSRCP has performed dismally this time. Naidu’s arrest, coupled with resentment against the YSRCP over lack of jobs, worked in the alliance’s favour. The coming together of Naidu and Prime Minister Modi, and a major surge of support from Pawan Kalyan also helped the alliance in coastal Andhra.
The entire election became a discussion between two opposing ideologies: Jagan’s welfare driven governance vs Chandrababu Naidu’s development ideology. While Jagan managed to hold on to votes from rural women, youngsters, urban voters, and various Backward Class (BC) groups stayed with the TDP. Naidu has held on to the image as a job and ‘wealth creator’, which ushered in a return of the yellow party.