In stark contrast to his usually composed demeanour, outgoing Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy portrayed a dejected, forlorn front on the evening of June 4. The incumbent YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) lost to the opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which is in alliance with the Jana Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The alliance secured 164 seats while Jagan’s YSRCP got a meagre 11 seats; the biggest loss by a party in Andhra Pradesh till date.
Addressing the media on Tuesday, June 4, Jagan highlighted his welfare schemes and questioned the loyalty of the beneficiaries, even saying that he suffered betrayal. Expressing surprise at the election results, Jagan called the winners the “alliance of powerful people who operate out of Delhi”.
He said that despite suffering a defeat, the YSRCP had held on to about 40% of the vote share, adding that he would continue to work for the people of the state with that in mind.
Except for Jagan, nearly all major YSRCP leaders like Kodali Nani, Vallabhaneni Vamsi, and cabinet ministers like RK Roja, Gudivada Amarnath, and Botsa Satyanarayana lost in their respective Assembly constituencies. YSRCP’s schemes like Amma Vodi, YSR Aasara, YSR Cheyutha, YSR Matsyakara Bharosa, and Aarogya Shri were well received by women voters. However, anti-incumbency against YSRCP was evident in the results that rendered their Assembly presence negligible. It begs the question: what led to his loss?
The capital question
The TDP-JSP-BJP alliance’s campaign with a development-led agenda was privileged over Jagan’s welfare initiatives. In NTR and Guntur districts, the alliance won owing to TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu’s promise that Amaravati, a region sandwiched between Vijayawada and Guntur towns, would be made the capital.
Jagan, while initially willing to make Amaravati the capital, later opted for a three-capital arrangement once he came to power. The YSRCP promised that they would make Amaravati the legislative capital, Visakhapatnam the executive capital, and Kurnool the judicial capital.
The change of mind, coupled with the fact Visakhapatnam is a TDP stronghold, worked against Jagan.
The unemployment question
Unemployment was a major poll issue in Andhra in 2024, as it was in 2019. Before winning power in 2019, Jagan had promised to fill 7000 teacher posts among the 23,000 vacant posts in Andhra Pradesh through a ‘mega DSC’ (District Selection Committee). The mega DSC never happened. The promise that 26,000 police department jobs would be filled up was also a no-show. Jagan’s government only managed to make appointments to the village and ward secretariats.
Several people who spoke to TNM in Vijayawada’s Autonagar and Kakinada town said that with the notification for the mega DSC not being released, youth took up menial jobs. Further, the mismanagement of several ports in Kakinada, Nellore, and Visakhapatnam under Jagan’s governance reportedly caused unemployment in the coastal belt.
The Andhra Pradesh Nirudyoga Porata Samithi (APNPS), a civil society group fighting unemployment, has time and again criticised different state governments for failing to secure and implement jobs for Andhra youth. “The government promised a job calendar every year, but there has been no notification for other jobs in the state except for secretariat jobs,” said APNPS president Marrivemula Srinivas in August 2023.
The modernisation of Amaravati, coupled with Chandrababu Naidu’s image as the ‘CEO’ of Andhra Pradesh, led several young people to prefer the alliance in the hope that jobs would come through.
Chandrababu Naidu’s arrest and the Pawan Kalyan factor
Perhaps the biggest turning point for the alliance was TDP supremo N Chandrababu Naidu’s arrest in September 2023. The AP Crime Investigation Department (CID) and YSRCP had alleged that Naidu was involved in a multi-crore skill development scam. Several small scale protests in favour of Chandrababu Naidu broke out in the state, leading to a wave of sympathy for him across Andhra Pradesh. A day after his arrest, Jana Sena chief Pawan Kalyan, who until that point was critical of the TDP, joined hands with Naidu.
Pawan Kalyan’s appeal among youngsters, coupled with his hold over the Kapu community, has also worked in the alliance’s favour. Jagan Mohan Reddy had remarked that Kapu reservation would not be implemented under his government, prompting a wave of dissatisfaction from the forward caste group. The coastal districts of East Godavari, West Godavari, and Kakinada, populated by Kapus, overwhelmingly supported the Jana Sena.
“Many alliances have failed to successfully transfer votes to their candidates, but in this election, the partners managed to do so smoothly, despite initial dissent among the party cadres. Pawan Kalyan played a key role in setting the narrative to prevent the split of these votes. When TDP faced difficulties after Naidu’s arrest, Kalyan unified the two parties and gained trust among their cadres. It further motivated party activists to focus on toppling the YSRCP government,” said political analyst K Nageshwar.
Maintaining the spirit of their alliance, tTDP and JSP released a joint election manifesto, which was well received by the electorate. The manifesto promised free bus travel for women, three free gas cylinders every year to each household, monthly financial assistance of Rs 1,500 to women aged 18-59 years, creation of 20 lakh jobs in five years, and monthly unemployment allowance of Rs 3,000, among others.
Liquor as a poll issue
One among the promises in the 2019 manifesto that the YSRCP did not fulfil prohibition. Instead of a complete ban on alcohol, several residents TNM spoke to in Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, NTR, Nellore, and Tirupati districts said that foreign brands were replaced with alcohol brewed from local brands, allegedly causing liver cirrhosis and several other health issues in people consuming local brands.
Speaking to TNM, BJP MLA from Visakhapatnam (North) Penmetsa Vishnu Kumar Raju said that poor quality liquor was sold above the minimum retail price in various government approved outlets in the state. “Bottles that cost, say Rs 15, were sold at Rs 220. One could only pay for such liquor in cash and digital payments were disallowed. Several people died owing to liquor manufactured by local brands.”
In contrast to YSRCP, the TDP-JSP-BJP alliance pledged to provide good quality alcohol at reduced prices, putting an end to local brands.
Economy badly hit
While welfare schemes were implemented via direct benefit transfers, there was a public demand for more infrastructure- and investment-led development, which was forsaken by the Jagan government. In several interviews, Jagan remarked that protecting and supporting Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises was crucial to save the economy instead of privileging out-of-state and foreign investment.
The TDP-JSP-BJP alliance alleged that YSRCP had mired Andhra Pradesh in severe debt. Along with Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh experienced an inflation over the national average of 5.1%.
In general, political observers believe Jagan's failure to some extent was also due to neglecting his party and cadre. He replaced candidates facing anti-incumbency in over 40% of seats, relying on his own image, which led to YSRCP’s downfall.