Will Chandrababu Naidu’s arrest help TDP or YSRCP? Analysts unsure

While political observers are split over whether his arrest will help Naidu gain sympathy, most are clear that it will ensure that the TDP will not be able to capitalise on corruption cases against CM Jagan.
Andhra CM Jagan and opposition leader Chandrababu Naidu
Andhra CM Jagan and opposition leader Chandrababu Naidu
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The arrest of former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu in the AP Skill Development Corporation (APSDC) scam on Saturday, September 9 was a first in the Telugu states of AP and Telangana, given that no other former CM has ever been arrested on corruption charges. While political observers are split over whether his arrest will help the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief gain sympathy in the upcoming 2024 AP elections, most are clear that his alleged involvement in the scam will ensure that he and the TDP will not be able to capitalise on corruption cases against current CM and YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) supremo Jagan Mohan Reddy.

“By arresting Naidu on corruption charges, the ground has been evened. So if TDP leaders accuse Jagan of being corrupt, then YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) leaders can also hit back,” political analyst Palwai Raghavendra Reddy says.

Naidu, who was arrested from Nandyal, is facing allegations of misleading the Cabinet and misappropriation of Rs 371 crore from the state’s funds. On Monday, Naidu was shifted to the Rajahmundry Central Jail in the early hours after a court in Vijayawada sent him to 14-day judicial custody. On the directions of the Vijayawada Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) Court, the former CM has been allotted a special room, and jail authorities have been told to allow him home-cooked food and medicines.


“It is too early to say anything on how this will impact the 2024 state and general elections in AP. We are still about 8 months away, so predicting anything now is not easy. People were not shutting down their shops in protest today and even TDP sympathisers did not do much. He got arrested on corruption charges. If corruption is a big issue, then Jagan should not have come to power after spending 16 months in prison,” Raghavendra pointed out.

Jagan had spent 16 months in jail after being arrested by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in May 2012; he was released on bail in September 2013. He has been accused of embezzlement and amassing wealth during the time his father, the late YS Rajasekhara Reddy, was the CM of AP (joint state) between 2004 and 2009. Jagan continues to face charges from the CBI.

After Naidu’s arrest, protests were held by TDP workers and the party gave a bandh call for September 11. Several parts of AP including Guntur, Kadapa, and East Godavari witnessed some tension as TDP activists stopped buses and forced shop owners to close their businesses.

“There is a kind of perception that Naidu’s arrest will arouse sympathy, but some people feel this is how the law takes its course. Anti-establishment feeling is on the rise amongst some people, as expectations from the government are not being met. Except for welfare schemes, the state’s borrowing is a concern among the middle class and government employees. Those sections are waiting for payback,” said A Chandrasekhar of the Human Rights Forum, AP.

Among the opposition, Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party (JSP) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] extended their support to the bandh. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which the TDP has been trying to cosy up to, did not issue any statement supporting the bandh. The protests were held in spite of the police reportedly issuing prohibitory orders and banning rallies and meetings in several districts throughout the state.

“The TDP will try to hard sell this issue to voters; that it is vendetta politics and that Naidu is a victim. I have my reservations if the average voter will have sympathy for the TDP. However, the alliance between TDP and JSP can be very clearly seen now. This is a clear indication that Naidu and Pawan Kalyan have been together for sometime and that the BJP is not part of it as of now. Since the day Naidu was picked up, Pawan Kalyan has been outraging and has made his stand very clear,” Raghavendra noted.

Over recent months, the TDP has been showing signs of reforging its alliance back with the JSP and the BJP. In June Naidu had also met BJP national president JP Nadda and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, leading to speculation that the TDP was all set to return to the National Democratic Alliance. But, nothing was officially announced. However, TDP leaders had earlier told TNM that talks with Pawan Kalyan had been held and that the parties were more or less set to go together in the 2024 elections to take on the YSRCP.

What is the skill development case scam?

The case goes back to 2014 when the then ruling TDP government under Naidu had established the APSDC. Set to train unemployed youth to make them employable, an estimated project cost of Rs 3,300 crore was given. A memorandum of understanding was signed by the APSDC and a consortium consisting of Siemens India Software India Ltd and Design Tech Systems Pvt Ltd.

Under the project, the companies proposed to establish skill development centres across the state. Only 10% of the total cost was to be covered by the AP government, while the rest was to come in the form of a grant-in-aid by Siemens and Design Tech. As per the AP CID, the state government released its share of Rs 371 crore even before work had begun. These allegations initially came to light when a whistleblower approached the ACB in 2018.

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