A survey by a Kannada media outlet – Eedina – has contradicted all major exit polls, and predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will lose several seats in Karnataka in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. According to the survey, the INDIA bloc is likely to win between 13 and 17 seats in Karnataka, with the remaining seats being shared between the BJP and Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)]. Karnataka has a total of 28 Lok Sabha seats with BJP contesting on 25 seats and JD(S) contesting on three seats.
The survey, which involved nearly 1,50,000 respondents, indicates a potential shift in voter sentiment that could significantly benefit the INDIA bloc. This is in direct contrast to some of the exit poll results which showed the BJP-JD(S) combine winning above 20 seats. According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the BJP is projected to win between 20 and 22 seats, JD(S) is expected to secure two or three seats, while the Indian National Congress (INC) might win three to five seats. According to the C-VOTER exit poll, the BJP is likely to win 23 to 25 seats out of the total 28 seats in Karnataka, while the Congress is likely to get three to five seats. The India TV-CNX exit poll also predicts the same numbers for the BJP.
The Lok Sabha survey results suggest a major turnaround for the Congress party which managed to win just one seat in the 2019 election. According to the survey report, issues including inflation and unemployment heavily influenced voter behaviour in the state. Research head of Eedina HV Vasu told TNM that many voters in Karnataka felt that women voters largely preferred Congress over BJP in Karnataka as they felt BJP was responsible for the price rise. Modi’s popularity, he said, had not increased, but had not decreased either.
The popularity of the five guarantees by the Congress also led to them getting more votes. The exit polls conducted by many of the agencies, Vasu said, had also discounted illiterate voters who could not use the IVRS (Interactive Voice Response System) to denote their choices. This could have led to a skewed picture of the voting pattern, he said.
Eedina’s pre-poll survey in the Karnataka Assembly elections in 2023 was the only accurate survey, where they had predicted that Congress would win a whopping 137 seats out of 224 seats. The election results saw Congress win with 133 seats. One of the major reasons that Congress won so many seats was the positive reception by women voters for the five guarantees given by Congress.
In Telangana, the survey predicts that out of the 17 seats, the INDIA alliance may win 10 seats, while the BJP may secure around four seats. AIMIM may secure their Hyderabad seat, and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi may get one or two seats, the survey said.
The survey also projects that the INDIA bloc will win 19 out of 20 seats in Kerala, with the NDA winning one seat. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the INDIA bloc is expected to secure 38 of the total 39 seats, with one seat going to the NDA.