It appears that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has succeeded in pushing former Karnataka Chief Minister and Leader of the Opposition, Siddaramaiah, to a situation akin to the previous 2018 Assembly election. Ahead of the Karnataka Assembly polls to be held on May 10, Siddaramaiah is in a dilemma over which seat to contest from — Varuna, which is seen as the ‘safe’ seat, or Kolar, a bastion of the AHINDA (an acronym for Alpasankhyataru or minorities, Hindulidavaru or backward classes and Dalitaru or Dalits), a movement for which Siddaramaiah has been positioned as the unquestionable leader.
In 2018, Siddaramaiah chose the safe route and contested from both the Chamundeshwari and Badami constituencies, giving up his ‘safe’ seat in Varuna to his son Dr Yathindra Siddaramaiah. However, this strategy only benefited the BJP, with Siddaramaiah cornered in distant Badami after his defeat in Chamundeshwari.
Similar to the way former state minister and Janata Dal (Secular) leader GT Devegowda was fielded in Chamundeshwari to humble Siddaramaiah, the ruling BJP seemed to have nearly decided to field BY Vijayendra in Varuna. Vijayendra is the state vice president of BJP Karnataka, and the son of top BJP leader and former CM BS Yediyurappa. By fielding Vijayendra against Siddaramaiah in Varuna, the BJP had planned to capitalise on Lingayat votes. However, Yediyurappa appears to have rejected this idea to avoid jeopardising his son’s political career.
Though Siddaramaiah has accepted the Congress high command’s suggestion of contesting from the ‘safe’ seat of Varuna, his heart seems to be with Kolar, where he and his lieutenants had created a favourable pitch. Before agreeing to contest from Varuna, Siddaramaiah had declared last year that the 2023 Assembly election would be his last electoral outing. Days after he was given the ticket to contest from Varuna, Siddaramaiah said that he plans to contest from Kolar too.
“In 2018, I was not sure of winning the Chamundeshwari constituency, so I contested in two constituencies — Badami and Chamundeshwari. This time I am confident of winning from Varuna, but the people of Kolar have shown me love and asked me to enter the contest from there too. So, I have asked the high command for a ticket from Kolar as well," Siddaramaiah reportedly said in Mysuru on March 28.
Highly placed sources in Congress admitted that Siddaramaiah has been pressurising the party's high command to allow him to contest from both Kolar and Varuna. Contesting from Kolar has become a prestige issue for Siddaramaiah, as backtracking on the announcement would give the BJP an opportunity to humiliate him, morally and politically.
So why does Congress consider Kolar to be ‘unsafe’ for Siddaramaiah? It is said that an internal survey of the party on ground zero hinted that Siddaramaiah could lose, because of the BJP’s strategy in Kolar as well as the absence of a grassroots cadre. A recent visit to the Kolar constituency by this writer unveiled the main reason for the Congress’s apprehensions. BL Santhosh, BJP’s National General Secretary (Organisation), has completely shifted his focus to Kolar. Santhosh’s visit to the constituency and his meetings with BJP and RSS cadres and leaders have become a cause of concern for Congress leaders in Kolar.
Yet, voters in Kolar appear eager to elect Siddaramaiah, to secure benefits in the event that Siddaramaiah becomes the Chief Minister. “We will get the credit of electing Siddaramaiah in his last poll battle. And if Kolaramma (the presiding deity of Kolar) blesses him, he will become Chief Minister of Karnataka for the second time and develop Kolar on the lines of Badami,” said Munikatappa (62) of Danamattanahalli village, which is part of the Kolar Assembly constituency.
On the other hand, Congress workers in Kolar expect categorical assurance from Siddaramaiah and are confused by his indecision. “If Siddaramaiah clears the air at the earliest, there is a possibility of JD(S) and BJP workers shifting their allegiance because of their love and loyalty for Siddaramaiah,” said Anupama (28), a Congress worker from Dinnehosahalli.
In the last 14 Assembly elections in Kolar, Congress has won five times, Independent candidates have won seven times, and JD(S) has won only once, while the BJP is yet to open its account. Winning Kolar and defeating Congress, especially Siddaramaiah, has now become an issue of national importance for the BJP.
When Siddaramaiah was looking to shift to a different constituency from Badami, leaders and voters from at least 10 Assembly segments approached him. At one point in time, according to sources in Congress, Siddaramaiah weighed the options of contesting from Koppal, Varuna, Ron, Chamundeshwari, and Chamrajpet. Finally, under pressure from leaders close to him, and based on the response from the people of the constituency, Siddaramaiah resolved to fight his last poll battle from Kolar. “We have asked the opinions of 23 gram panchayats in Kolar constituency on Siddaramaiah representing them in the Legislative Assembly. The response was overwhelming,” said senior Congress leader and former chairman of the Karnataka Legislative Council VR Sudarshan, who is overseeing the party’s poll preparations in Kolar.
Congress has represented the Kolar seat four times since 1957. However, the party’s base has eroded since 2008, when Varthur Prakash won as an Independent candidate. A former state minister, Varthur Prakash represented Kolar as an Independent candidate twice in 2008 and 2013. He is now believed to be the BJP’s choice of candidate in the fight against Siddaramaiah. On the other hand, incumbent MLA of Kolar K Srinivasa Gowda who won the 2018 Assembly election on a JD(S) ticket has since associated himself with Congress. His support for the Congress is also expected to assure victory for Siddaramaiah.
Besides the above factors, the Vokkaliga community too has a major say in the Kolar constituency, and Siddaramaiah’s supporters are hopeful that they will support him. Siddaramaiah’s strength also lies in his mass appeal as an AHINDA leader. “Siddaramaiah is known for being plainspoken, and also for his concern for minorities, Dalits and Other Backward Classes (OBCs). These communities will not disappoint their leader”, said Member of the Legislative Council Anil Kumar.
However, when compared with the campaign efforts of the BJP and JD(S) on behalf of their candidates, Congress is lagging behind. After suspending the present Kolar MLA Srinivasa Gowda for cross-voting in the Rajya Sabha polls in June last year, JD(S) announced CMR Srinath as its candidate in the Kolar contest. While the BJP is yet to officially announce its candidate, posters and cut-outs featuring CMR Srinath and Varthur Prakash (the frontrunner for the BJP ticket) are visible in many parts of the constituency. However, it is difficult to discern that Siddaramaiah is contesting from Kolar, based on Congress’s campaign. “We don’t want to make a sound before the party finally announces its candidate. Our focus is on strengthening grassroots level campaigns at the booth levels,” a Congress worker from Kolar’s Kasaba region asserted.
At a recent meeting of local Congress leaders, Siddaramaiah had declared, “Chamundeshwari is my janmabhoomi (birthplace), Kolar will be my karmabhoomi (workplace, or land of action).” Since then, many private agencies have already conducted surveys in the Kolar constituency. According to one such survey, while 44.6% of voters in Kolar opted for Siddaramaiah, 34% of voters chose JD(S) candidate CMR Srinath, as his party has already announced him as its official candidate in Kolar. The remaining voters (about 21%) opted for Varthur Prakash. However, the most worrying factor for Congress is the possibility of BJP and JD(S) joining hands in a local, unofficial understanding to defeat Siddaramaiah. The big question on the minds of people across Karnataka is whether Siddaramaiah will strike gold in Kolar this time.
Muralidhara Khajane is a senior journalist and film critic. Views expressed are the author’s own.