It is heartening that Kerala is fighting the COVID-19 pandemic with a high recovery rate of 93% whereas the national average stands at 28.71%. The crisis, however, has left the state with potential revenue loss and the government has appointed a three-member panel to assess the impact on the state’s finances.
In a brief interview with TNM, Director of Kerala Tourism P Bala Kiran said that the revenue loss in the tourism sector for four months – February to May – amounts to Rs 15,000 crore. With the pandemic hitting Kerala’s economy hard, this is the third time in a row that the state is suffering huge revenue loss. In 2018 and 2019, it was massive floods that had devastated the state.
“The tourism industry had been hit, though not in a big way, by the Nipah outbreak in 2018 as well. But in 2018 and 2019, we carried out a very strong marketing and promotion campaign. We also launched the Human by Nature campaign. That was widely appreciated and accepted by the tourism industry and also by tourists,” Bala Kiran says.
The department’s campaigns helped the tourism industry quickly find its feet again.
Highest growth rate in more than two decades in 2019
Kerala is among the top three or four most sought-after destinations in the country.
“In 2019 we registered a growth of 24% in revenue. The revenue generated was Rs 45,000 crore, including both direct and indirect revenue. Post the floods in 2018, by December itself we could register a positive growth, though the growth rate was negative from August to December. And in 2019 post the deluge the sector registered a 17.2% growth rate, the highest in the last 24 years,” he says.
The tourism industry was at its peak when the COVID-19 crisis struck, but has inevitably shown a downward trend after that, suffering severe losses post February. “We have estimated a loss of four months – from February to May. Compared to what we earned in the previous year, it amounts to Rs 15,000 crore for the tourism industry. If the lockdown is extended, the losses will go up,” the Director says.
Source markets also affected
Though Kerala was affected by the 2018 and 2019 floods, the source market had been strong and stable. Now that the whole world has been impacted, all the source markets – such as the UK, US, Germany, France, Middle East and South East Asia – have been affected.
“The industry’s revival depends on the entire market, it’s all interconnected. It’d take a long time for tourists to start coming in even if we regained normalcy. Given the scenario and the ambiguity about the future, currently we are on the wait and watch mode. Some states in the country are still witnessing a surge in the number of cases, it’s not stable yet. We would keep the industry to be ready to welcome guests, but it also certainly depends on the recovery rates in other states. Monsoon will also start in June, so we have to be prepared for the post-monsoon days,” Bala Kiran explains.
The Tourism Director is candid enough to admit that the future is definitely uncertain, but he is also hopeful.
“Let us be optimistic. The tourism industry was the first to be hit by the pandemic and will be the last one to revive. For example if it’s a consumer durables market it would come back to normal without much delay once the lockdown is over. In tourism, people won’t rush to travel even after the lockdown restrictions are lifted. But the relief is that Kerala’s recovery rate is high and the number of active cases are less,” he says.
Helping in relief for stranded tourists
Explaining that currently the sector is involved in relief and rehabilitation activities, he says, “We are particularly in the relief mode, sending the tourists who were stranded in the state back home. Since March, we have arranged for around 800 tourists to go back to their respective countries. This has been widely appreciated by the countries concerned and the care we took of them. The Tourism department has also been helping in the rehabilitation of Non Resident Indians returning to the state by arranging around 10,000 rooms for them.”
“We will discuss with our partners in the tourism advisory committee once the lockdown is lifted, and try to reassess the impact and chalk out plans for the future. We have some ideas, but we will have to take industry opinion as well before the plans finally shape up,” he adds.