The new Parliament could open more fault lines between the north and the south. With the freeze on delimitation set to expire in 2026, there is speculation over just how much the strength of Lok Sabha will be increased. There is fear that if such an increase is based on population, as is the norm, then the southern states will suffer.
States get parliamentary constituencies proportionate to their population based on census numbers. The Lok Sabha strength has not been revised for over 50 years. The current seat division in Lok Sabha is based on the 1971 census. The Constitution was amended to freeze the Lok Sabha’s revision of seats until after the 2001 census in 1976, during the Emergency under the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi,
The freeze was extended till 2026 by the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government in 2001. The idea in both these amendments was to encourage population control measures. “The current freeze on undertaking fresh delimitation up to the year 2026 is a motivational measure to enable the state government to pursue the agenda for population stabilisation,” stated the constitutional amendment.
So the freeze on the delimitation exercise both in 1976 and in 2001 was meant to ensure that all states implement population control measures. The idea was that those states that were successful in limiting their growth were not punished with fewer seats, while states that were not successful were ‘rewarded’ with more MPs.
But what’s unfolding now is the exact opposite.
The southern states that controlled their population will have fewer Lok Sabha seats and the Hindi belt states that saw a massive population growth will have more parliamentarians.
Not revising the Lok Sabha strength will be unfair to Hindi belt states, who need more MPs, since their representation per citizen is low. But does that mean southern states should bear the brunt?
As author RS Nilakantan says in his book, South versus North: India’s Great Divide, the freeze on delimitation is like a race. There are two sets of runners, with one far ahead and the other remaining behind. So we can’t ask the one ahead, which is the southern states to stop running. We also cannot ask the ones behind, which are the Hindi belt states to continue running.
The freeze is set to expire in 2026. So, the next delimitation of constituencies will be done post-2026 after the census is carried out.
So what could the Lok Sabha look like then?
A 2019 paper published in the American think-tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace gives us a picture of what India’s electoral map could look like. Using 2026 population projections, the authors estimated that the Lok Sabha’s strength would have to increase to 846.
According to their projections, Uttar Pradesh, which currently has 80 constituencies, would have 143 seats – an increase of 63. Bihar would go from its current 40 seats to 79. So too, other Hindi belt states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh, among others, would stand to gain seats relative to their population.
On the other hand, southern states like Tamil Nadu would go from the current 39 seats to only 49, while Kerala, with 20 constituencies would see no change.
To put things into perspective, the share of Lok Sabha seats in the south would drop to 19% from around 23% currently, while the more populous Hindi belt states would see their proportion of MPs rise to 48% from the present 42%.
Needless to say, this could have far-reaching consequences for Indian politics.
Opposition parties feel it is the BJP which will most likely benefit, given the Hindi heartland is its stronghold. The BJP had in 2019 won 178 out of the 225 Lok Sabha seats in the 10 Hindi belt states.
Barring Karnataka, the south has largely kept the BJP at bay. Out of the 129 seats in the five southern states, the BJP has only 29 MPs. It has no elected representatives from Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. An expanded Lok Sabha could also weaken the political influence wielded by regional parties like the DMK, BRS, and YSRCP among others.
But this does not mean that the freeze should continue as that would be unfair to the north whose citizens deserve proportional representation. Before the delimitation goes ahead, the concerns of the southern states will have to be addressed.
So what can be the solution?
There’ve been many solutions proposed. One solution is reapportioning the existing number of seats – meaning less populous states would have their seats taken away and given to the more populous states.
Another solution proposed is expanding the strength of the Lok Sabha. Given that the new Parliament building has 888 seats, in all likelihood, the number of MPs in the lower house will go up. With this, no seat would be taken away from a less populous state while ensuring populous states get adequate representation.
The Rajya Sabha could also be reconstituted so it’s truly a Council of States. Like the Lok Sabha, states are allocated seats in the Rajya Sabha in proportion to their population. Some experts have suggested making the Rajya Sabha like the US Senate – where each state gets two representatives irrespective of their population.
Experts have also suggested that Rajya Sabha MPs should be elected directly by the people instead of the present system of indirect elections to the Rajya Sabha, where state Assemblies select MPs. This would not only ensure southern states are less opposed to the expansion of the Lok Sabha but would give all states equal voice and representation in the Upper House, truly making it a representative body of states and a forum to protect state interests.
Decentralisation is another solution offered where the powers of the Union would be reduced and shared with the state. This would increase the powers and rights of states, and address concerns of interstate inequality.
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