As Sri Lanka goes to polls on September 21, one of the country’s top concerns remains the 2022 economic crisis and its impact. Thirty-eight candidates are contesting. None of them are women. All eyes are on three candidates, President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa.
Leader of Opposition (LoP) Sajith Premadasa, a centrist, has been attacking Wickremesinghe on austerity measures imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). A former deputy of Wickremesinghe who left the United National Party (UNP) to form his own political outfit Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), Premadasa is considered a strong contender. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the presidential candidate of the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, has positioned himself as a “progressive” voice in the race. But a generation of Sri Lankans will remember the role played by his party Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) in insurgency and inciting Sinhala chauvinism in the late 1980s.
After its catastrophic economic collapse and the dramatic ousting of the Rajapaksas, Sri Lanka is still grappling with austerity measures and restrictions—resulting from the IMF bailout of nearly USD 3 billion sanctioned.
Among the three candidates, President Wickremesinghe, who has held the office of Prime Minister six times, is seen as the least likely to win. He was PM during the economic collapse and later became the President of a country with a staggering public debt: 128% of its GDP. For Sri Lankan voters he represents the ‘old guard’ and his UNP – often described as Sri Lanka’s ‘Grand Old Party’ – was unable to secure even a single seat in the 2020 Parliamentary elections. He has the backing of a Rajapaksa family member from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).
The IMF’s 48-month loan under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) provided USD 2.9 billion to Sri Lanka in 2023. This was negotiated by the Wickremesinghe administration. As part of austerity measures, the public sector saw salary cuts, tax hikes and more. Last year, Human Rights Watch observed: “The government has announced policies that effectively reduce salaries in public service agencies, eliminate subsidies, and increase regressive taxes – steps that could degrade public services and further raise prices at a time when a large segment of the population is already struggling due to high inflation.”
Sajith Premadasa, the son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa, has attempted to create an image of his barely four-year-old party, SJB, as an alternative to Wickremesinghe’s UNP. The former deputy of Wickremesinghe has repeatedly trained his guns on him, calling him a “president without a people’s mandate”.
Ranasinghe, according to an inquiry committee set up by Gotabaya Rajapaksa, secretly armed the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) against the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF). The commission was tasked with inquiring into the death of Lt General Denzil Kobbekaduwa and nine other military personnel and submitted its report in 1998. Ranasinghe was killed in a suicide bombing during May Day celebrations in 1993 Colombo. The LTTE was widely blamed for the assassination, though they denied their involvement.
Kobbekaduwa is considered a war hero by Sinhalas, but is accused of committing war crimes and human rights violations against Tamils in the 1980s and 1990s. This has often been used against him by his opponents, including by Mahinda Rajapaksa who reportedly claimed that the weapons were provided to the LTTE in order to “murder Sinhala people” and “shoot at the army”.
SJB has taken a centrist stand with Premadasa saying in a recent interview that the country has “gone through a lot” due to “extreme right wing, neo-liberal economic policies.” He also dismissed “extreme” socialist ideals, saying it would not help everyone. Before the fall of the Gotabaya Rajapaksa presidency in 2022, Premadasa had said that both the President and Wickremesinghe, who was Prime Minister at the time, was “holding the Sri Lankan people to ransom”.
Premadasa is also the only presidential candidate to speak about the historic Amendment 13 to the Sri Lankan Constitution–borne out of the 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Accord, but never properly implemented. The amendment sought to merge Tamil majority regions in the north and east into a province and ensure a devolution of power to regional, Tamil authorities. Tamils have been split about Amendment 13 regarding how much actual power it gives them, while it is hated by Sinahala chauvinists. The SJB manifesto says, “Our principle is to convert our present political system to parliamentary system and with maximum devolution based on the 13th Amendment under one country.”
This has earned the contempt of other Sinhala leaders including JVP chief Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the NPP alliance, which is projecting itself as a progressive platform. The NPP is made up of 21 groups including political parties, trade unions and civil society collectives. In the late 1980s, JVP shot to popularity as an armed radical Left group carrying out insurrections. They quickly became a Sinhala-chauvinist platform and were among those who have consistently opposed Amendment 13. Based on their strident opposition to India, the JVP deemed the Amendment “foreign interference”.
The JVP’s animosity towards India and other “foreign powers” continued even after the organisation entered electoral politics in the 1990s. However, in February this year, Dissanayake was given a red-carpet welcome in New Delhi.
The NPP manifesto states that they are aiming to raise Sri Lanka’s real GDP to 120 billion USD by 2030.
Notably, though not considered a frontrunner, Namal Rajapaksa–the eldest son of Mahinda Rajapaksa and nephew of Gotabaya Rajapaksa–is also contesting.
What does the polls mean for Tamils?
Sri Lanka’s largest Tamil party, the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), seems split between support for Premadasa and a common Tamil candidate. On September 1, ITAK leadership said they will be supporting Premadasa. Then on September 10, the Killinochi ITAK branch said that they would support the “common candidate” Pakkiyaselvam Ariyanethiran, fielded by parties like the Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO) and Eelam People’s Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF), that are not part of Tamil National Alliance (TNA).
On September 12, ITAK leader S Sritharan, who was in the UK when the announcement regarding Premadasa was made, said that no such decision had been taken. The party, according to latest reports, is likely to make an announcement on September 15. There were also reports that senior ITAK leader and MP Mavai Senathirajah met Wickremesinghe on September 7 and pledged his support.
The ITAK was once a key figure in the TNA representing the north-east in Parliament. TNA supremo R Sampanthan passed away in July this year, creating uncertainty in the alliance. Sampanthan, the second person with Tamil origin to serve as LoP in Sri Lanka, was a powerful voice. Over the years the number of TNA members have dwindled and currently there are only three parties in the alliance.
A poll boycott is also an option Tamils are considering. The boycott is being led by the Tamil National People’s Front (TNPF) who hold the view that “even today, the Sri Lankan government is treating the Tamil nation as enemies.”