Hype vs reality: Can BJP make gains in Tamil Nadu?

With the Lok Sabha polls looming, political parties are deeply entrenched in strategic campaign planning. While numerous factors influence election outcomes, including candidate popularity, party strength, and anti-incumbency sentiments, the role of opinion polls conducted by independent organisations and television channels cannot be understated. These polls have the potential to sway public perception, shaping expectations regarding party victories or defeats.

As the 2024 general election approaches in Tamil Nadu, these polls have consistently forecast a substantial win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The BJP in West Bengal positioned itself as a principal opposition party against All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) by eliminating the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM) and the Congress from state politics, which has been the case since 2019. The BJP wants to replicate the same situation in Tamil Nadu by trying to project itself as a viable alternative against the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) by side-lining the AIADMK. 

The anticipated outcome of this Parliamentary elections, particularly in Tamil Nadu where the BJP is poised to surpass the main opposition party, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), is a focal point of this article. Delving deeper, this article aims to scrutinise whether these poll predictions accurately reflect ground realities and assess the BJP's purported advancements in Tamil Nadu.